SpaceX Falcon 9

[LRV_75]

В общем надо сказать, что "личность нужна", как бы всем не хотелось сделать чтобы незаменимых не было.

В нашей космической отрасли перестали ценить людей, а достойных людей там, поверьте, еще очень много.
Один руководитель [мат и нецензурщина] мне объяснял так, когда я ему выдал расчет на увеличение стоимости человекомесяца в два раза: "В управлении сказали, вы не лезите со своими человекомесяцами, а мы не лезим в ваши накладные расходы"
Это переводиться так: "Если вы хотите увеличивать зарплату своим работникам, то мы вам дадим это сделать, но только за счет того, что у вас будет меньше ресурса для попила"
Ну и естественно [мат и нецензурщина] отказались от дальнейших телодвижений

[Сторонний]

Нет, нет, я ни в коем случае не имел ввиду под словом "облапошить" - взять кучу денег и ничего не сделать. Нет. Он делает. И будет делать, пытаться делать, а вот как получиться, опять же покажет время. Пока, ИМХО, видно, что на него делают ставку, поэтому помогут, даже если что то по объективным причинам будет не получаться. ИМХО, для космонавтики это хорошо. Тут законы рынка не должны действовать, тут надо уже поддерживать, даже, иногда, и искусственно и вопреки экономической эффективности

Вы совершенно верно заметили, что "рынок" в данной сфере является условностью, причём даже если это чистая коммерция без государственных затрат, - слишком мал выбор потенциального потребителя чтобы "ходить по базару" даже с очень хорошим предложением.
 Чтобы некий "рынок" стал реальностью даже в сфере космического туризма надо чтобы цена полёта упала раз в 10 и одновременно появились несколько операторов данной услуги, которые предлагают постоянные вменяемые условия предоставления услуги.
 Иначе всё это "импровизация с прицелом на государственные финансы".

 С точки зрения российской космонавтики, кстати, очень выгодно, если Маск добьётся успеха, разумеется, если не планировать "сидеть на заднице вечно".
 Альтернативным вариантом могло быть, "всё очень дорого, потому ничего и нет, и никуда летать вообще не будем", а это полнейшая деградация.

[Сторонний]

В нашей космической отрасли перестали ценить людей, а достойных людей там, поверьте, еще очень много.
Один руководитель [мат и нецензурщина] мне объяснял так, когда я ему выдал расчет на увеличение стоимости человекомесяца в два раза: "В управлении сказали, вы не лезите со своими человекомесяцами, а мы не лезим в ваши накладные расходы"
Это переводиться так: "Если вы хотите увеличивать зарплату своим работникам, то мы вам дадим это сделать, но только за счет того, что у вас будет меньше ресурса для попила"
Ну и естественно [мат и нецензурщина] отказались от дальнейших телодвижений

В результате поощрение работников производится из тех же ресурсов попила и иерархическая система, которая действовала при СССР оказывается удобнее для человека, который просто хочет работать, а не заниматься выпрашиванием у начальства подачки.

 Большинство моих знакомых, которые ушли из космической отрасли, ушли именно по этой причине.

[Космос-3794]

6 феврвля, 2011 - Astrobotic Technology Inc. подписала контракт со SpaceX на запуск автоматической лунной станции на носителе Falcon 9. Миссия предназначенная для поисков воды, доставки ПН и передачи 3D-видео состоится не ранее декабря 2013.

http://astrobotic.net/2011/02/06/astrobotic-technology-announces-lunar-mission-on-spacex-falcon-9/

[Bell]

6 феврвля, 2011 - Astrobotic Technology Inc. подписала контракт со SpaceX на запуск автоматической лунной станции на носителе Falcon 9. Миссия предназначенная для поисков воды, доставки ПН и передачи 3D-видео состоится не ранее декабря 2013.

http://astrobotic.net/2011/02/06/astrobotic-technology-announces-lunar-mission-on-spacex-falcon-9/

http://www.googlelunarxprize.org/lunar/teams/astrobotic

[instml]

14.03.2011
SpaceX and SES Announce Satellite Launch Agreement
Falcon 9 booster to launch SES-8 to GTO in 2013

Hawthorne, CA / Luxembourg - March 14, 2011 - As the Satellite 2011 conference kicked off in Washington, D.C., Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) and SES (Euronext Paris and Luxembourg Stock Exchange: SESG) today announced an agreement to launch an SES satellite using the Falcon 9 rocket.

SES is one of the largest satellite operators in the world, and the deal marks what will be the first geostationary satellite launch using SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket. The firm launch agreement with SpaceX also includes an option for a second SES launch. It supplements SES' existing multi-launch agreements with its traditional launch providers Arianespace and ILS.

"As a world-leading telecommunications satellite operator, SES is in a position to choose the very best.  SES is known for their low tolerance to risk and cautious approach in evaluating suppliers," said Elon Musk, SpaceX CEO and Chief Technical Officer.  "SpaceX has focused on building the most reliable, safe and affordable launch vehicles in the market today.  The SES deal shows that even the most conservative commercial or government customers can have confidence flying their satellites on the Falcon 9 rocket."

States Romain Bausch, President and CEO of SES: "Access to space is of utmost importance to SES, as we embark on our most ambitious fleet expansion programme yet. After extensive due diligence of SpaceX's technical and operational expertise, we feel comfortable entrusting SpaceX with one of our satellites, thereby encouraging diversity in the launch vehicle sector and fostering entrepreneurial spirit in the space industry. Falcon 9 ideally complements our roster of Ariane 5 and Proton boosters, as well as our framework launch understanding with Sea Launch. We look forward to a successful collaboration with SpaceX on the SES-8 mission and beyond."

The SES-8 satellite is scheduled to launch in the first quarter of 2013 from SpaceX's Launch Complex 40 at the Air Force Station at Cape Canaveral, Florida.

About SES-8

SES is launching SES-8 into the orbital position of 95 degrees East to respond to the strong demand for additional direct to home (DTH) capacity in Asia. SES-8, currently under construction with Orbital Sciences Corporation (NYSE: ORB), is a medium-sized communications satellite focused on South Asia (India) and Indo-China (Thailand, Vietnam, Laos) to support existing DTH customers with back-up and growth transponder capacity. SES-8 will be co-positioned with NSS-6 at the orbital slot of 95 degrees East, which is a cornerstone of the SES strategy in Asia and also supports key customers in the Middle East, Afghanistan, Australia, Papua New Guinea, and Korea.

http://www.ses.com/ses/siteSections/newsroom/Latest_News/index.php?pressRelease=/pressReleases/pressReleaseList/11-03-14/index.php

[SpaceR]

Ого, на удочку Маска клюнула уже крупноватая рыбка...
Масса SES-8, подозреваю, будет где-то около 3 тонн?

[Космос-3794]

Орбиталовские "пятикиловатники" весят в районе 3200 кг.
А стоимость спутника + стоимость запуска + стоимость страхования (запуск+1 год безотказной работы) = $216 млн.
http://www.spacenews.com/launch/110314-ses-selects-falcon.html

[Salo]

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2011/03/14/354295/spacex-expands-texas-rocket-test-site.html

DATE:14/03/11
SOURCE:Flight International
SpaceX expands Texas rocket test site[/size]

Launch provider SpaceX has signed a new lease agreement with the city of McGregor in Texas to more than double its rocket development facility. SpaceX has received more than $2.5 billion in launch contracts that need to be carried out over the next few year, $1.6 billion of which are with NASA to fly at least 12 missions.

"McGregor is going to be a very busy place'' says SpaceX chief executive and chief technology officer Elon Musk. SpaceX will now be leasing 255Ha (631 acres) for its test facility.

[SpaceR]

Конкретно не сказано, но похоже на расширение производства Мерлинов.

[Петр Зайцев]

А я думал это под новый стенд с водородом для Раптора.

[Valerij]

Молодец, Маск!

Нравится мне его подход к делу. Смотрите сами:




Я примерно с нового года не заглядывал на страничку его планов по запускам. В этих скринах я выделил то, чего тогда не видел. Выделил по памяти, могут быть ошибки. Но каков!

На 2012 год - Falcon Heavy Demo Flight,
На 2013 год - запланировано минимум восемь запусков, из них четыре с Драконом, причем одна - "DragonLab Mission 1" - автономный полет.

Там сложно понять, когда и сколько полетов запланировано в договорах, предусматривающих несколько запусков, но даже в этом варианте планы впечатляют, и Маск уже доказал, что умеет добиваться их реализации.

Кстати, NASA COTS  Demo 2 и Demo 3 обозначены как два разных полета.

[Сторонний]

Да, если года два у SpaceX дела пойдут без сбоев, то Маску может даже и дадут денег на большой двигатель для супертяжа...

[Salo]

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1803/1

New competition and old concerns in the commercial launch market[/size]
by Jeff Foust
Monday, March 21, 2011

In the ongoing political debate about NASA's commercial crew development plans, one argument often put forward by opponents is that commercial providers are untried and unproven. This is typically an implicit—and sometimes an explicit—reference to SpaceX, which at the time the commercial crew proposal was rolled out in February 2010 had yet to launch its Falcon 9 rocket. Since then, of course, SpaceX has performed two Falcon 9 launches, both successful: enough to demonstrate its capabilities, if not to win over all its critics.

Those launches may have opened the doors for SpaceX to more than just the commercial crew market, though. Another launch market that today is far larger and more mature than commercial crew and cargo is for commercial satellites, dominated by communications satellites in geosynchronous orbit (GEO). The customers for these launches, including several companies that operate fleets of dozens of satellites each, tend to be relatively risk averse when it comes to purchasing launches, valuing reliability and on-time performance over discounted launch prices. And yet one of those major satellite operators has stepped forward to buy a launch from SpaceX, one of several developments that have the potential of reshaping the global commercial launch industry in the next several years and also stoking the ongoing debate about the appropriate level of supply in the commercial launch market.
SpaceX enters the market

Last Monday, as the Satellite 2011 conference kicked off in Washington, SpaceX announced it had won a contract from Luxembourg-based SES to launch one of that company's satellites. The contract calls for the launch of SES-8, a satellite ordered from Orbital Sciences Corporation last month, in the first quarter of 2013 from Cape Canaveral, Florida, with an option for a second launch approximately two years later.
"The SES deal shows that even the most conservative commercial or government customers can have confidence flying their satellites on the Falcon 9 rocket," said Musk.

As it turns out, this contract is not the first SpaceX has won for commercial GEO communications satellites. Last year SpaceX won contracts with Spacecom, a small Israeli operator, and Space Systems/Loral, a major commercial satellite manufacturer, for commercial GEO launches. The SES launch, though, will be the first commercial GEO mission for SpaceX. More importantly, though, it's a sign that SES, one of the four large commercial satellite operators (along with Eutelsat, Intelsat, and Telesat), is confident enough in SpaceX to satisfy its risk-averse nature.

"SES is known for their low tolerance to risk and cautious approach in evaluating suppliers," said SpaceX CEO Elon Musk in the release announcing the contract. "The SES deal shows that even the most conservative commercial or government customers can have confidence flying their satellites on the Falcon 9 rocket."

"SpaceX, with the Falcon 9, is a very interesting development in order to being small and medium-sized satellites into geostationary orbit," Romain Bausch, president and CEO of SES, said during a panel session of major satellite operators at the Satellite 2011 conference on Tuesday.

Bausch said, though, that the Falcon 9 is today not ready to launch SES-8. "There are a couple of enhancements that will need to be done: a larger fairing, and also enhancement of the engine," he said. "But our team, after a very thorough due diligence, came to the conclusion that this is very likely to be achieved."

In another Satellite 2011 session later Tuesday, SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell confirmed that the SES launch is dependent on fairing and engine upgrades to the Falcon 9. "They did want to see a fairing flight prior to" the SES-8 launch, she said. "We're also working on upgrading our engines, and they wanted to see a flight of that."
"I think that it's huge news" that SpaceX won the SES contract, said James Murray of Morgan Stanley.

Other satellite operators, who in recent years have complained about increasing launch prices and limited competition in the commercial launch market, applauded the SES-SpaceX deal, while not necessarily racing to ink similar deals of their own. "It seems to me the most viable new entrant is SpaceX," said Dave McGlade, CEO of Intelsat, during the Satellite 2011 operators panel. "We're very pleased you're [SES] helping them jumpstart their capabilities in the commercial side. We're a bit more conservative at Intelsat so we look forward to success for you first."

"I applaud the announcement SES and SpaceX made the other day," said Daniel Goldberg, CEO of Telesat. He said the low launch costs offered by SpaceX and potentially other new entrants in the market, such as India, could make the launch of smaller GEO satellites more economical than today. "If the launch costs can get down for the smaller satellites... then that would make launching smaller satellites much more viable."

The financial community also sees consider potential for SpaceX in the commercial GEO launch market. "I think that it's huge news" that SpaceX won the SES contract, said James Murray of Morgan Stanley during the Satellite Finance Forum, part of Satellite 2011, on Monday. Attracting "blue chip" customers like SES is a "ringing endorsement" of SpaceX, he said, adding that such customers could help SpaceX attract financing in public markets.

Murray also looked ahead to SpaceX's plans to develop the Falcon 9 Heavy, whose larger capacity would allow it to launch the heavier commercial GEO satellites that make up most of the market. "I think for the first time you may have a truly competitive commercial environment," he said, with SpaceX competing against Arianespace, International Launch Services (ILS), and perhaps Sea Launch. "I think this is a very dynamic sector."
Other competition and controversy

While SpaceX is making inroads into the commercial GEO launch market, Sea Launch is looking to get back in. The company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in June 2009, putting launch operations on hold while it worked to restructure the company (see "Supply and demand for commercial launch", The Space Review, April 5, 2010). Sea Launch emerged from Chapter 11 last October under a new ownership structure dominated by RSC Energia, one of the companies in the original multinational partnership.

"Going forward, Sea Launch is focused on the heavy-lift sector of the market," said Kjell Karlsen, president of Sea Launch, during a launch providers panel session at the conference. "We look at ourselves as the third proven provider in that market" after Arianespace and ILS.

Karlsen said Sea Launch plans to resume launches later this year, with two planned for this year and three for next year, based on existing launch contracts. By 2013, pending the signing of new launch contracts, he said Sea Launch planned to do as many as five launches a year.
"We look at ourselves as the third proven provider in that market" after Arianespace and ILS, said Sea Launch's Karlsen.

Sea Launch's reentry into the market, as well as SpaceX's plans (Shotwell said the company expected by 2013 or 2014 to be performing as many as a dozen Falcon 9 launches a year, although many of those will be for NASA and other non-GEO customers), would seem to pose a competitive threat to Arianespace and ILS, who today account for most commercial GEO launches. At the Satellite 2011 panel, though, the heads of the two companies had differing takes on effect those entrants will have on the overall market.

"I think there will be another rationalization" in the launch market like what took place in the early 2000s, said ILS president Frank McKenna. Then, a drop in launch demand pushed some vehicles, like the Delta 4, off the commercial market entirely, while the Atlas 5 saw its commercial business decline to a trickle. Now, declining demand for launches as major satellite operators wrap up replenishment of their satellite fleets, and a desire for those operators to be more efficient and lower costs in the face of terrestrial competition, could affect the launch industry. "I see that, in the next four to five years, will clearly lead to a shakeout," he said. "There's no doubt in my mind about that. The weaker players, financially, will have to exit."

Arianespace chairman and CEO Jean-Yves Le Gall, though, said he was confident that his company's record of reliability and performance would allow it to continue to attract customers, regardless of the market. "We are starting to see customers move to heavy, heavy satellites, beyond seven tonnes," he said, a move that would effectively exclude all of Arianespace's competitors, since the Ariane 5 is the only commercial vehicle on the market capable of launching spacecraft that large to GEO. That is only possible, he said, because of the record of success built up by the Ariane 5, whose last launch failure was over eight years ago. "The customer can take the risk with a satellite that can be launched only by the Ariane 5." He predicted that, within a few years, there would be customers that would use the full capacity of the Ariane 5, about nine tonnes.

During the Satellite 2011 panel, Le Gall and McKenna spent less time debating the future of the launch market than debating each other regarding the degree to which they are subsidized by their respective governments. McKenna noted ILS has a balance between commercial customers, which account for about eight Proton launches a year, and Russian government, or federal, missions, which account for about four Protons a year. "The eight commercial [launches] drive the economics," he said, allowing them to avoid subsidies. He contrasted that Arianespace, which he said has taken about a billion euros ($1.4 billion) in subsidies in the last several years.
"I see that, in the next four to five years, will clearly lead to a shakeout," ILS president McKenna said. "There's no doubt in my mind about that. The weaker players, financially, will have to exit."

Le Gall countered that while Arianespace may receive subsidies, it at least does so in a transparent manner. "At Arianespace, we decided that the effort of the European governments to sustain launch services must be completely transparent," he said. He contrasted that to his experience with Starsem, a European-Russian joint venture to market the Soyuz rocket that Le Gall also serves as chairman of, where he said there was a "huge effort" by the Russian government to subsidize the industry. "Our analysis is that the Russian launch systems, either Proton, Soyuz, or Zenit, receive a lot of subsidies, much more than Ariane, but these subsidies are not transparent."

That debate about subsidies is likely to continue after ESA member nations agreed late last week to provide an additional 240 million euros (US$340 million) for the Ariane 5 program through the end of next year. McKenna told Space News that ILS has gone as far as considering filing a protest of the subsidies with the EU or the World Trade Organization, arguing that, among other things, such subsidies are "detrimental to the long-term health of the commercial launch industry."

Regardless of the level of subsidization, it's clear that satellite operators welcome additional choice in the market provided by SpaceX and Sea Launch, seeing them as able to counter trends for increasing launch prices. "Having new entrants is key," said Intelsat's McGlade. He noted that he and Eutelsat made "a huge amount of effort" to ensure that Sea Launch emerged from Chapter 11.

"In recent years we've seen prices go up," said Michel de Rosen, CEO of Eutelsat. "That is a concern for our industry, and therefore to see new players come in is good news, because just like we compete with one another to satisfy our customers, it is good that our suppliers also compete with one another. Hopefully this will have a positive impact on the evolution of prices of launchers in the coming years."

Launch providers, of course, fear that the additional supply, coupled with forecasts for diminished demand, could lead to a "rationalization" as McKenna fears. One potential sign is the future of Land Launch, a venture that uses a variant of Sea Launch's Zenit-3SL launched from Baikonur, serving smaller GEO satellites in competition with Soyuz and, now, Falcon 9. Sea Launch's Karlsen said that there are no Land Launch missions on the books after a mission for Intelsat planned for later this year. "After that, we have to sort out what to do with Land Launch," he said. "At this point in time, I'm not certain that Land Launch is competitive in the marketplace for those kinds of satellites."

The question facing the industry is whether, in a few years, other launch systems will be in the same situation as Land Launch, if too many vehicles chase too few launches in this market.

Jeff Foust (jeff@thespacereview.com) is the editor and publisher of The Space Review. He also operates the Spacetoday.net web site and the Space Politics and NewSpace Journal weblogs. Views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author alone, and do not represent the official positions of any organization or company, including the Futron Corporation, the author's employer.

[Петр Зайцев]

А и неудивительно, что МакКенна осторожничает. У Протона ведь практически нет резервов по ПН, а у Арианы есть, да и жирные субсидии. Плюс еще Энергетики со своим Морским Стартом, как будто одного Маска мало ему на голову.

[Дмитрий В.]

А и неудивительно, что МакКенна осторожничает. У Протона ведь практически нет резервов по ПН, а у Арианы есть, да и жирные субсидии.

Если ЦиХ поторопится с КВТК, ситуация может измениться.

[Bell]

А и неудивительно, что МакКенна осторожничает. У Протона ведь практически нет резервов по ПН, а у Арианы есть, да и жирные субсидии. Плюс еще Энергетики со своим Морским Стартом, как будто одного Маска мало ему на голову.

Причем, как оказалось, Протон с Арианом вполне справляются и без СиЛонча. А если и с ним, то остаются ему крохи с барского стола...
Вообще непонятно, на что еще одному оператору рассчитывать.

[Bell]

А и неудивительно, что МакКенна осторожничает. У Протона ведь практически нет резервов по ПН, а у Арианы есть, да и жирные субсидии.

Если ЦиХ поторопится с КВТК, ситуация может измениться.

Не поторопится. КВТК на Протоне убивает коммерческую Ангару ака Байтерек. И вообще на Байкодроме никто не будет создавать водородную инфраструктуру, пусть даже такую небольшую, какая требуется для КВТК.

[Петр Зайцев]

Если ЦиХ поторопится с КВТК, ситуация может измениться.

Не поторопится. КВТК на Протоне убивает коммерческую Ангару ака Байтерек. И вообще на Байкодроме никто не будет создавать водородную инфраструктуру, пусть даже такую небольшую, какая требуется для КВТК.

Вот вы всегда лезете с фактами и реальностью. Я только вздохнул с облегчением, прочитав ответ Дмитрия...

P.S. Минуточку, а от Энергии там ничего не осталось? Или Инженер Проекта все демонтировал и сдал в слом?

[Дмитрий В.]

А и неудивительно, что МакКенна осторожничает. У Протона ведь практически нет резервов по ПН, а у Арианы есть, да и жирные субсидии.

Если ЦиХ поторопится с КВТК, ситуация может измениться.

Не поторопится. КВТК на Протоне убивает коммерческую Ангару ака Байтерек. И вообще на Байкодроме никто не будет создавать водородную инфраструктуру, пусть даже такую небольшую, какая требуется для КВТК.

ЦиХ на Байке вполне обойдется "Протоном", а коммерческие пуски Ангары из Плесецка вряд ли волнуют МО - основного заказчика. Так что никто ничего не теряет. Кроме Казахстана.