КК для негосударственной космонавтики

Автор Олигарх, 15.08.2009 18:32:53

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Олигарх

КК для негосударственной космонавтики

Предлагаю в этой ветке отслеживать развитие пилотируемых КК, разрабатываемых для использования вне государственных космических агентств. То есть возможно и госагентствами - но это только option для таких КК, главное назначение которых - выполнение полетов на коммерческой основе для, в принципе, все платежеспособных.

Начнем c cамого свежего :):
 
Company pitches 'lite' spaceship to NASA - Space.com- msnbc.com
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32418057/ns/technology_and_science-space/
By Amy Klamper



A stripped down version of NASA's future spaceship designed by a Nevada-based
company could be ready as soon as 2013, according to the Bigelow Aerospace, the
private company proposing to build it.
A Bigelow official flew to Denver in July to privately brief a White
House-charted panel on the suggested design based on the planned Orion Crew
Exploration Vehicle, which will carry passengers to and from low Earth orbit.
Such a system is crucial to Bigelow's plans for deploying Sundancer, an
inflatable space station module the North Las Vegas, Nev.-based firm is building
based on NASA's Transhab design. In search of the means to transport paying
passengers to Sundancer, Bigelow has spent the past two years working with
Denver-based United Launch Alliance to study a human-rated version of the Atlas
5 rocket.

But it was not until last month that Bigelow quietly unveiled the "Orion Lite"
concept in a private briefing to former Lockheed Martin Chief Executive Norm
Augustine and his White House-charted committee tasked in May with developing a
range of options for an affordable and sustainable U.S. human spaceflight
program.
Bigelow's crew capsule design is modeled on the Orion vehicle that Lockheed
Martin — one of United Launch Alliance's corporate parents — is developing for
NASA.

In a July 30 interview with Space News, Mike Gold, director of Bigelow's
Washington office, said he believes a low Earth-orbit optimized version of Orion
could be ready to launch atop a human-rated version of the Atlas 5 within three
or four years — much sooner than NASA's discredited March 2015 target for the
first crewed launch of Orion and its Ares I rocket.
Gold said the Bigelow capsule would have the same outer mold line as NASA's
16-foot (5-meter) wide Orion and possibly the same internal pressure vessel, but
little else in common.

Lighter capsule
For starters, NASA expects the lunar-capable Orion crew capsule and
propellant-laden service module to weigh well in excess of about 40,000 pounds
(20,000 kg). Gold would not provide weight or cost estimates for Bigelow's Orion
Lite concept, but said the envisioned vehicle would be light enough to launch
atop an Atlas 5 with a twin-engine Centaur upper stage but no strap-on
solid-rocket boosters. This configuration, known as the 402, is capable of
lofting 27,557 pounds (12,500 kg) into low Earth orbit.
Gold said the Bigelow capsule would also be capable of launching atop the Falcon
9 rocket Hawthorne, Calif.-based Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) hopes
to debut this year.
"I don't think there's any question that a commercial capsule can be
constructed, tested and launched years before the existing Orion plan will come
together, if it ever does," Gold said. "We're moving beyond Orion-Ares at this
point."
A start-up venture founded in the late 1990s by real estate mogul Robert
Bigelow, the company currently has two subscale expandable space modules in
orbit. The privately financed Genesis 1 and Genesis 2 modules were launched in
2006 and 2007, respectively, from Russia aboard Dnepr rockets.
A combination of rising Russian launch prices and the success of Genesis 1 and
Genesis 2 compelled the company to skip the launch of additional subscale
demonstrators and accelerate development of Sundancer, a six-person space
station that could grow to accommodate 15.
"We have a history of leveraging existing technology as demonstrated by the
Dnepr missions, and utilizing a commercial capsule simply follows in the
pragmatic path we have begun upon," Gold said. "We will soon be moving forward
with solicitations focused on the airframe and getting quotes from various
subcontractors."
!!!  
Gold would not say whether Orion prime contractor Lockheed Martin has or will
have any involvement in Orion Lite.
Lockheed Martin spokeswoman Joan Underwood
did not return multiple phone calls seeking comment by press time.
!!! But industry  
and government sources familiar with the effort, said Lockheed has helped
Bigelow with the concept.
...
...

Петр Зайцев

Наверное было бы полезно обсудить зачем все это нужно. Биглоу делает ставку на то, что МКС - плохая платформа для исследований. Поступают сигналы, что фирмы заинтересованы в прикладных исследованиях в условиях невесомости, но дороговизна и бюрократия их отпугивают. Когда Драгонлаб объявили, отбоя не было от желающих заплатить денежку в общем-то за эквивалент Фотона. Соответственно, есть ли подобный интерес в России? Если нет, ну так и нет смысла городить негосударственную космонавтику, а следует предоставить лидерство э этой области американцам.

Олигарх

Ранее была аналогичная ветка, из нее от 26 февраля 2007 г.:

Из ветки

http://uplink.space.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=missions&Number=671931&page=0&view=collapsed&sb=5&o=0&fpart=


LiveScience: ULA edging towards commercial space travel....

In reply to:

Atlas Boost for Space Tourism, Space Colonization

If it was good enough for Mercury astronaut John Glenn back in 1962, it must be good to go to hurl tourists into Earth orbit and beyond.

That was the one-two punch delivered at the recent Space Technology & Applications International Forum (STAIF) held February 11-15 in Albuquerque, New Mexico.

Jeff Patton of the Business Development & Advanced Programs of the newly formed United Launch Alliance (ULA) spotlighted that a "potential new market for construction, crew and cargo delivery to low Earth orbit" can be serviced by the Atlas V 401 booster.

ULA's Patton detailed !!!!
a capsule-based passenger transfer vehicle that sits nicely atop the Atlas - a craft based on the design work and reentry technology used in the
!!! Genesis, Stardust and several Mars missions.

NASA has identified a term that is used for human flight called "Black Zones" Patton said, a phrase that defines any period of flight when an abort would be unsafe for the passengers.

A great deal of effort was spent during work on the Orbital Space Plane - a precursor design to the current Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle - an exercise that identified potential Black Zones and eliminating them by modifying the Atlas Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV).

Patton's bottom line: Atlas V 401/402 boosters are well suited for low Earth orbit human spaceflight and taking on a roster of commerical human spaceflight needs.

Also at STAIF, Michael Holguin of Lockheed Martin Space Systems Corporation pointed to using the Atlas and the Centaur upper stage to propel people, habitats and hardware to the Moon and Mars, calling it a reliable, robust, and safe approach to space colonization.

Когда заговорили о применении Atlas V 401 для пилотируемых КК, то сразу упомянулм Dragon Маска.

У меня это вызвало некоторое недоверие. Локхид-Мартин выиграл контракт на Орион, значит из его "обрезков" они склепают что-то упрощенное и дешевое – Ориончик JJJ - подумал я.
Мое недоверие оказалось правильным, хотя "обрезки" оказались от
!!! Genesis, Stardust and several Mars missions.

Коммерческой пилотируемой космонавтикой занялись не только Интернет-миллионеры, но и мейнстрим отрасли ...

А что же в России и на Украине?
РККЭ, которой сам Бог велел J создать такую космонавтику, в силу субъективных причин не может ... L

ЦиХ и Южмаш. Возможно, кто-то из них?

Здесь на форуме пару раз отмечался "замкнутый круг": для появления экономичных многоразовых систем – РН и/или КК (типа МАКС), а их создание это большие деньги, сроки, риски, нужен запрос, востребованность на эти системы ... Даже если такие системы волшебным образом появятся в готовом виде, спрос на них будет формироваться еще достаточно долго.

Нет запроса, нет денег на такие системы. Но нет таких систем, нет и большого запроса на поток ПН ...

Возможно, пилотируемые КК капсульного типа на базе консервативных, проверенных решений смогут "разогреть" рынок коммерческих полетов и сформировать запрос в достаточно явном виде для инвесторов экономичных многоразовых систем ...
И их историческая роль – лет на 12-15, всего 60-100 полетов, будет заключаться в том, что подготовить почву, то есть рынок, для появления таких систем. Например, лет через 5 после начала полетов этих КК с выходом на 25-30 человек в год такой уровень окажется достаточным для инвесторов и начала проекта по многоразовым системам ... И пока они будут создаваться, традиционные КК будут разогревать рынок ...

Во всяком случае, говоря сейчас с инвесторами на традиционные КК капсульного типа, можно говорить:
Эти КК – не цель, на них нельзя много заработать, но они создадут условия для разработки многоразовых систем с намного большим рынком.

Олигарх

LockMart: Not Safe To Rush Commercial Human Space Transport
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?id=news/aw081709p

3.xml&headline=LockMart:%20Not%20Safe%20To%20Rush%20Commerc

ial%20Human%20Space%20Transport&channel=awst

       LockMart: Not Safe To Rush Commercial Human Space Transport

      Aug 16, 2009


       
            By Guy Norris
            Lockheed Martin warns that fast-track plans to develop alternate
            commercial human-rated transport systems to the International

Space
            Station could be costly in terms of time, money and even safety.
            The warning comes as the Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans
            Committee completes its final options for presidential
            consideration. At the same time, Lockheed Martin reveals it is
            examining a wide range of future tasks for the Orion crew
            exploration vehicle far beyond the lunar and International Space
            Station (ISS) support missions for which it was originally
            conceived. The company plans to complete the preliminary design
            review for the spacecraft by month-end.
            While the prospects for Ares I and Orion await the baseline
            recommendations from the committee, led by retired Lockheed

Martin
            CEO Norman Augustine, the spacecraft manufacturer remains far

from
            complacent. John Stevens, business development human spaceflight
            director for Lockheed Martin Space Systems, says "we're having a
            hard time affording the Orion program, which is designed to take
            humans to the station and the Moon, and now they're talking about
            starting a commercial program to take humans. We're saying 'hang

on'
            - we've already got one. If we can't afford one program, how can we
            afford two?"
            Stevens cautions that, in Lockheed Martin's view, unless commercial
            ventures are accomplished in a steady step-by-step approach, their
            short-term cost-saving potential runs the risk of longer-term
            difficulties. "We know how difficult it is to transport to the
            station and we don't want people to cut corners, and downstream
            having NASA pay the penalty of the time and cost of doing this."

!!!!            The clear target for the comments is California-based Space
            Exploration (SpaceX), which is working toward a human-rated

version
            of its Falcon 9/Dragon spacecraft combination, provisionally
            outlined under the crew transfer portion of NASA's Commercial
            Orbital Transportation Services program, referred to as COTS-D. In
            2006, SpaceX won the competition to demonstrate transport of

cargo
            and optionally crew to and from the ISS and, under that agreement,
            it plans to fly both the Falcon 9 launch vehicle and Dragon
            spacecraft before the end of this year.
!!! The final flight, scheduled
            for 2010, is planned to demonstrate Dragon's ability to berth with
            the station.
 
           SpaceX is then due to begin the first of 12 operational cargo
            flights to the ISS, under the subsequently awarded Cargo Resupply
            Services contract. Human-rated flights under the COTS-D effort
            meanwhile edged a step closer with the award in April of initial
            funding for some crew-demonstration development work as part of

the
            $150 million of the $400 million for human exploration awarded to
            NASA under President Barack Obama's stimulus plan. Although far

less
            than advocates hoped for, the award effectively signaled the start
            of COTS-D work.
            "I'd rather wait for the nation to see Dragon get successful at
            transporting cargo, rather than say, 'let's do it all at once,"
            Stevens says. "It's a bit of a leap to the conclusion that 'we can
            do this,' and that alarms us. . . . If you give up safety or
            reliability, then you're giving up the wrong things. We're concerned
            that these entrepreneurial firms are promising too much. If you
            don't know what you don't know, then it's easy to say you can do
            this for so much."

            Early this year SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said, "NASA will certify

Dragon
            as habitable for crew even under the COTS A-C program, as it
            necessarily becomes an integral part of the space station and is
            occupied by astronauts when attached." The development of a

launch
            escape system, a critical requirement of the human-rated Dragon,
            "can be developed within two years, which means F9/Dragon can be
            ready to transport astronauts by mid-to-late 2011. By that date,
            Falcon 9 will have flown a dozen times and Dragon will have done a
            round-trip journey to the space station roughly half a dozen times
            with cargo, proving out reliability well in advance of carrying
            people."
            From a cost and U.S. jobs perspective, Musk argues COTS-D

presents a
            compelling argument for covering the looming gap between the
            upcoming retirement of the shuttle and the scheduled start of NASA
            Ares I flights.

Musk says
!!!  the 100% U.S.-manufactured Falcon 9/Dragon
            would cost less than $20 million per seat;
!!! the currently negotiated
            per-seat cost of the Russian Soyuz is $47 million. "
Although a lot
            more work would be needed to certify it for astronaut transport to
            and from the station, that work can readily be accomplished before
            the end of 2011, particularly given the empirical flight history it
            will have by then," says Musk.
            Lockheed Martin, meanwhile, outlines a range of additional roles for
            Orion which it says will increase its flexibility and
            cost-effectiveness. Designed to operate for up to 210 days in Earth
            or lunar orbit, and carry up to six crew, the Orion spacecraft "will
            prove itself a great national asset," says Brian Duffy, program
            manager of Lockheed Martin's Altair lunar lander program.
,

Петр Зайцев

Цитировать{Mr.} Musk says
!!!  the 100% U.S.-manufactured Falcon 9/Dragon would cost less than $20 million per seat;  
!!! the currently negotiated per-seat cost of the Russian Soyuz is $47 million. "
А Лев говорит, что Елону не удастся поддержать такие цены в перспективе, и Союз все равно выиграет. Кому верить?
-- Pete

Agent

Локхид заволновался :)
Это хороший знак.

Олигарх

ЦитироватьЛокхид заволновался :)
Это хороший знак.


В связи с сегодняшним анонсом Excalibur, опуюликованнном на этом форуме Игорем Лисовым, имеет смысл еще раз вспомнить одну старую ветку:
   
Добавлено: Ср Мар 21, 2007 13:16    Заголовок сообщения:    

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ааа писал(а):

Собственно, КК от ЦИХа на 50% это возвращаемый аппарат. И не старый, реутовский, а новый и свой. Будет ВА- будет новый корабль, не будет - говорить не о чем.




Excalibur Almaz - Viewing a thread
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=7053&posts=8&start=1


Location: Fairfax, VAWhile looking at the entry for TKS on Wikipedia, I
spotted:

"TKS VA capsules are presently being modernized for commercial use, by the
private spaceflight company, Excalibur Almaz."

On the Wikipedia page for the company:

"Excalibur Almaz is based in Douglas, Isle of Man, with offices in Houston
and Moscow. The company follows a lightweight and efficient business
model, by owning its spacecraft but contracting expert services, including
refurbishment, launch, control, and recovery.

Company founders include: CEO and space law expert Art Dula, CFO and space
commercialization veteran Buckner Hightower, and Sales & Marketing Vice
President Chris Stott. Stott is also CEO of ManSat and on the board of the
International Space University. The company's COO is U.S. Air Force
General (ret.) Dirk Jameson, who once commanded the Air Force's Vandenberg
missile launching base. Chief of spacecraft operations is Leroy Chiao,
formerly a NASA astronaut and Commander of the International Space
Station.

Advisory Board members include: former Johnson Space Center Director,
George Abbey; former Kennedy Space Center Director and former President of
Lockheed Martin Space Operations, Jay Honeycutt; former space shuttle
astronaut and VASIMR plasma rocket engine inventor, Franklin Chang-Diaz;
former European Space Agency astronaut Jean-Loup Chr

Олигарх

ЦитироватьЛокхид заволновался :)
Это хороший знак.

И еще раз из старой ветки:

Идея трехвитковых полетов показалась мне поначалу нелепой.
В принципе автономные полеты для туристов заслуживают внимания
(я предлагал Союз АТ и Клипер АТ для их реализации) по следующим причинам:

Cosmic Log : Celebrities in space? Home » Technology & Science » Science
http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/04/12/144246.aspx

Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates is just the latest name to be dropped as someone
who's supposedly interested in buying a multimillion-dollar spaceflight.
Microsoft itself says it "makes it a practice not to comment on rumors or
speculations," but the report naturally leads us to speculate on who else who's
famous has been interested in going up to the final frontier
!!! - and why they won't be going up anytime soon.
...
...
In the longer run, the outlook for the availability of Soyuz seats gets hazy !!!!
- due to the scheduled retirement of NASA's space shuttle fleet in 2010. The
demand for seats aboard Russia's Soyuz craft would likely increase, and it's not
clear how many of those seats would be available for Space Adventures' paying
passengers.

After 2009 or so, it could well be that the best opportunities for orbital
flights will come from private-sector suppliers.
...

Итак, дело не в деньгах (!!! "It hasn't been about the cost," she said.),
дело во времени на подготовку (!!! "It's about the time and the availability.")!

На автономные полеты, очевидно, времени на подготовку потребуется значительно
(полагаю, в разы) меньше, чем сейчас на полеты к МКС!

НО трехвитковые полеты?

Однако, отторжение вызывает прежде всего предложенная реализация:
древний ВА ТКС на 3-х пассажиров (без пилота!), запускаемый на сомнительной для
пилотируемых запусков РН Днепр!
Но с новым, большим ВА (до 6 человек, но пусть будет 5: 4 пассажира и все-таки пилот!)
на РН СОЮз ФГ/2-1а уже симпатичнее ...

Кстати, когда начинают проявляться неприятные симптомы, вызванные невесомостью?
кажется, не на первых витках ... Если так, это большой плюс для трехвитковых полетов.

Экономика. Какова себестоимость такого полета на РН Союз ФГ?
Какую цену назначать пассажирам?
=======================================

В сегодняшнем анонсе EA речь идет о недельных полетах. И, похоже, автономных.
Так какую капсулу на 3 или 6 человек они будут использовать?
Ждем подробностей ...

Олигарх

Beating swords into plough shares with Soviet Almaz
http://www.spaceflightnow.com/news/n0908/18almaz/      
      BY CRAIG COVAULT
      SPACEFLIGHT NOW
      Posted: August 18, 2009

       
      The previously top secret reusable reentry vehicle for the Soviet "Almaz"
      manned military space station will form the backbone of a major new
      U.S./Russian commercial venture to carry paying research crews on one week
      missions into Earth orbit by 2013.

      The reusable reentry vehicle (RRV) venture is being announced today at
      MAKS, the annual Moscow Air Show at Ramenskoye air base.
...
      EA intends to begin
      flight tests of the Almaz hardware by 2012 and to launch its first revenue
      flight as early as 2013.
      Excalibur has raised "tens of millions of dollars" to initiate what will
      become a several hundred million dollar program, Dula tells Spaceflight
      Now. He has spent more than 20 years eying this specific Almaz program,
      something I can vouch for from my own experience with the Almaz program in
      Russia.
      He also says "the business plan closes" generating profits within a few
      years. His surveys have found research and science customers for space
      missions that are not tourist hops, but less demanding than ISS
      operations.
      The program is about to redo a science/industrial user study it did once
      in 2006. Dula says individual contacts already indicate there is a strong
      market for science and industrial missions that would not have to fly on
      the International Space Station and want to spend less time aloft than an
      ISS flight.
 
!!!Each mission will be piloted by an experienced cosmonaut or
      astronaut and can carry 2 researchers.

Олигарх

ЦитироватьBeating swords into plough shares with Soviet Almaz
http://www.spaceflightnow.com/news/n0908/18almaz/      
...
!!!Each mission will be piloted by an experienced cosmonaut or
      astronaut and can carry 2 researchers.

Итак, EA определилась с нишей для своего ВА ТКС - недельные автономные полеты для двух УКП.
Но для этой ниши можно, как я полагаю, предложить более простое решение:  
http://www.novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=8266&start=0

Дмитрий Виницкий

+35797748398

Tot Amon

а никто не знает, что случилось с Авиабазой.ру ?

Она не выходит на связь уже неделю! Неужели она умерла?
ta neteru

Дмитрий Виницкий

+35797748398

KVV

"Sierra Nevada Co":  
ЦитироватьSpaceDev is currently working in conjunction with NASA Commercial Orbital Transporation Services (COTS) office to develop and configure the system for ISS servicing. In parallel, SpaceDev has signed a memorandum of understanding with United Launch Alliance (ULA) and is evaluating man-rating the Atlas 5 launch vehicle and configuring it for use with Dream ChaserTM to provide a launch configuration based on the exceptional heritage of the Atlas family of launch vehicles.

http://www.spacedev.com/spacedev_advanced_systems.php
Это было бы очень смешно, если бы не было так грустно.

Олигарх

US, Russian capsules vie for orbital
DATE:09/09/09
SOURCE:Flight International
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2009/09/09/331968/us-russian-capsules-vie-for-orbital-domination.html

US, Russian capsules vie for orbital domination
By Rob Coppinger

The history of human spaceflight has seen just seven operational crewed capsules
- Russia's Vostok, Voskhod and Soyuz, the USA's Mercury, Gemini and Apollo and
China's Shenzhou.
Almost that many more again are under development today to meet NASA's
International Space Station needs and build a budding market for space tourism.
The six under development now are Russia's Soyuz replacement, NASA's Orion crew
exploration vehicle (CEV), India's planned three-crew capsule and three
commercial projects, from Bigelow Aerospace, Excalibur Almaz (EA) and Space
Exploration Technologies (SpaceX).
Russia and NASA's spacecraft are planned to go to the Moon and India's three-man
capsule will orbit for a week of research.
!!!! But where is the market for the three
commercial vehicles?

Bigelow's capsule will serve its proposed orbital complexes it is leasing for
industrial and government activity and EA's vehicle will orbit for a week of
tourism. SpaceX's vehicle, Dragon, is to make 12 ISS cargo deliveries for NASA
for $1.6 billion from 2010 to 2015.


SpaceX has also secured customers for two flights of "Dragonlab", an unmanned
recoverable flying laboratory version of Dragon.
SpaceX and Bigelow may compete for NASA's $50 million 10-month Commercial Crew
Development programme, which starts in November.
This is not a market but US president Barack Obama's Review of US human
spaceflight plans committee is expected to propose in its full report a $2.5
billion crew transport competition that runs from October 2010 to 2014. The
committee's summary report was published on 8 September and mentioned the
competition but had no budget figure.

 
After the Space Shuttle's retirement in 2010, NASA will have to pay Russia for
Soyuz seats to reach the ISS unless industry can deliver an alternative.
EA, created in 2005 with support from US and Russian spaceflight veterans, is
registered in the Isle of Man and thus not eligible for NASA programmes. But it
has its sights set on the space tourism market and reckons its own flights could
attract up to 30 customers a year.

A tourism market of that size may not be a fanciful notion. Since 2001, six
customers have gone to the ISS with US company Space Adventures, and as far back
as 2002 marketing company Futron forecast a market worth over $300 million
annually by 2021 with 60 customers a year.

EA has an orbital test scheduled for 2013, Space Adventures is planning one
private ISS Soyuz flight that year while Bigelow expects its capsule's first
launch in 2012.
EA announced its plans on 18 August at the Moscow air show. Its capsule was
developed by NPO Mashinostroyenia and test flown in the 1970s under a Soviet
military programme.
The company's Almaz spacecraft will consist of an updated return capsule with
new electronics and life support system and a new service module.
EADS Astrium is at an early design stage for the service module that will be
habitable and enable week long missions.
EA says that if there is a business case it would launch an updated Almaz space
station module, also developed in the 1970s, for research or tourism and its
spacecraft would service it.
In August Bigelow announced its seven-passenger "Orion lite" concept, which is
based on NASA's Orion CEV. Orion prime contractor Lockheed Martin held meetings
on 5 May in Denver, Colorado and 21-22 July in Las Vegas, Nevada last year with
Bigelow to discuss the Orion Lite concept.
Bigelow's Washington DC area office director Mike Gold did not confirm the dates
but said that US launch provider United Launch Alliance participated and that a
2012 launch was possible: "We are continuing to work diligently on the capsule."
Meanwhile, SpaceX - which points out that its Dragon and its Falcon 9 launcher
were designed to NASA man-rating standards - says its cargo flights next year
are also tests for human missions.

Given its estimates that it would take about two years to develop the crewed
version's launch abort system, a crewed Dragon could also fly in 2012 or 2013
making that timeframe a busy period for orbital transport start-ups.

Олигарх

ЦитироватьUS, Russian capsules vie for orbital
DATE:09/09/09
SOURCE:Flight International
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2009/09/09/331968/us-russian-capsules-vie-for-orbital-domination.html

US, Russian capsules vie for orbital domination
By Rob Coppinger

The history of human spaceflight has seen just seven operational crewed capsules
- Russia's Vostok, Voskhod and Soyuz, the USA's Mercury, Gemini and Apollo and
China's Shenzhou.
Almost that many more again are under development today to meet NASA's
International Space Station needs and build a budding market for space tourism.
The six under development now are Russia's Soyuz replacement, NASA's Orion crew
exploration vehicle (CEV), India's planned three-crew capsule and three
commercial projects, from Bigelow Aerospace, Excalibur Almaz (EA) and Space
Exploration Technologies (SpaceX).
Russia and NASA's spacecraft are planned to go to the Moon and India's three-man
capsule will orbit for a week of research.
!!!! But where is the market for the three
commercial vehicles?
...
Given its estimates that it would take about two years to develop the crewed
version's launch abort system, a crewed Dragon could also fly in 2012 or 2013
making that timeframe a busy period for orbital transport start-ups.

В одной месте
http://www.novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=8279&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0 стр. 6,7

мы коснулись темы туристической версии нового КК и я высказал мнение, что она должна ЗНАЧИТЕЛЬНО отличаться от основной.
Главное – эта версия (назовем ее Орионский Лайт J) в отличие от основной может быть нормальным капсульным КК!
И запускаться нормальными серийными РН – существующим Зенитом-2 и вскоре Ангарой-3 с Байконура.
 
Ситуация с новым КК очень неопределенна: помимо разработки самого КК, нужно разработать и РН для него и построить новый космодром.
Но разработку этого КК можно, тем не менее, ускорить, если начать именно с туристической версии, а уже ее извращать под требования тендера Роскосмоса: вставлять РДТТ для посадки и т.д., что бы получить основную версию КК.
То есть, действовать в порядке обратном для Orion и Orion Lite ...
...
...

Tot Amon

ломать скрипки Страдивари....

Ну ну!

СтримФлов правильно сказал, что смысла нет гнаться за кратковременным успехом. Или вы работаете, или...

Космос.
ta neteru

саша

Быстрее полностью грузовой вариант ПТК выведут Зенитом чем пассажирский Ангарой.

Tot Amon

Вы гонитесь за мелочью, за ерундой. Слупить лишние 100 - 200 RUB вместо того, чтобы купить нормальную тачку. А Вы вообще в ней разбираетесь, в "в тачке"? Или Вы "просто инженер", типа Ланюка или Бихмана? А?
ta neteru

Олигарх

Цитировать
ЦитироватьUS, Russian capsules vie for orbital
DATE:09/09/09
SOURCE:Flight International
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2009/09/09/331968/us-russian-capsules-vie-for-orbital-domination.html

US, Russian capsules vie for orbital domination
By Rob Coppinger

The history of human spaceflight has seen just seven operational crewed capsules
- Russia's Vostok, Voskhod and Soyuz, the USA's Mercury, Gemini and Apollo and
China's Shenzhou.
Almost that many more again are under development today to meet NASA's
International Space Station needs and build a budding market for space tourism.
The six under development now are Russia's Soyuz replacement, NASA's Orion crew
exploration vehicle (CEV), India's planned three-crew capsule and three
commercial projects, from Bigelow Aerospace, Excalibur Almaz (EA) and Space
Exploration Technologies (SpaceX).
Russia and NASA's spacecraft are planned to go to the Moon and India's three-man
capsule will orbit for a week of research.
!!!! But where is the market for the three
commercial vehicles?
...
Given its estimates that it would take about two years to develop the crewed
version's launch abort system, a crewed Dragon could also fly in 2012 or 2013
making that timeframe a busy period for orbital transport start-ups.

В одной месте
http://www.novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=8279&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0 стр. 6,7

мы коснулись темы туристической версии нового КК и я высказал мнение, что она должна ЗНАЧИТЕЛЬНО отличаться от основной.
Главное – эта версия (назовем ее Орионский Лайт J) в отличие от основной может быть нормальным капсульным КК!
И запускаться нормальными серийными РН – существующим Зенитом-2 и вскоре Ангарой-3 с Байконура.
 
Ситуация с новым КК очень неопределенна: помимо разработки самого КК, нужно разработать и РН для него и построить новый космодром.
Но разработку этого КК можно, тем не менее, ускорить, если начать именно с туристической версии, а уже ее извращать под требования тендера Роскосмоса: вставлять РДТТ для посадки и т.д., что бы получить основную версию КК.
То есть, действовать в порядке обратном для Orion и Orion Lite ...
...
...

Продолжаю.
Естественно, я не имею в виду, что буквально делается Орионский Лайт, а потом из него Орионский. Проектируется Орионский (проектирование не зависит от того, есть ли РН и космодром для КК), именно он главный и именно на него Роскосмос выделяет деньги, а потом из этого проекта делается проект Орионского Лайт. То есть, на этапе проектирования все как с Orion и Orion Lite.
Но на счет Orion нет сомнений, что после проектирования начнется изготовление и ЛКИ. А после этого или параллельно, но с отставанием, начнется изготовление и ЛКИ Orion Lite.

В нашем случае с Орионским уверенности насчет изготовления и ЛКИ этом, как с Orion, нет. Если она и есть у кого-то, то через год-два, я уверен, исчезнет. Поэтому, наверное, в РККЭ и не торопятся с проектированием, собираясь еще год заниматься концептуальным уровнем ... J Хотя открытия на этом уровне с древним капсульным КК, скорей всего, уже невозможны ...
   
Отсюда и идея: после проектирования Оионского и Орионского Лайт не сидет и ждать у моря погоды (РН и космодрома J) для Орионского, а немедленно переходить к отработке Орионского Лайт, тем более, что для этого можно партнера, который поможет и финансово.
Я имею в виду прежде всего Казахстан, который обеспокоен будущим Байконура, его загрузкой запусками. Для отработки и использования Орионского Лайт можно создать СП типа Байтерек, у которого будут все права на коммерческие полеты Орионского Лайт (за Роскосмосом права на полеты в своих интересах).
Я думаю, что проектирование Орионского Лайт на основе проекта Орионского – это по срокам и стоимости в несколько раз меньше, чем при проектировании Орионского. Казахстан мог бы взять на себя это + ЛКИ Орионского.
Естественно, здесь вылезет немало проблем, а сначала надо составить ТЭО для Орионского Лайт ...