Чанъэ-5 -- CZ-5 -- Вэньчан -- 23.11.2020, 20:30:12 UTC

[Зомби. Просто Зомби]

...если у КНР возникнет желание, они могут сделать...

Они сделают, обязательно.
Но вряд ли будут спешить, потому что здесь обрывается проторенная дорожка, и позитивный опыт отсутствует.
То есть, требуется серьезная собственная проработка вопроса, включая всякие не очень приятные "зачем" и "почему".

Иными словами, они скорее здесь "возьмут паузу", чем "рванут в карьер".

[ronatu]

...если у КНР возникнет желание, они могут сделать...

Они сделают, обязательно.
Но вряд ли будут спешить, потому что здесь обрывается проторенная дорожка, и позитивный опыт отсутствует.
То есть, требуется серьезная собственная проработка вопроса, включая всякие не очень приятные "зачем" и "почему".

Иными словами, они скорее здесь "возьмут паузу", чем "рванут в карьер".

Иными словами они сделают так как им надо, а не как нам хочется... :wink:

[SpaceR]

...если у КНР возникнет желание, они могут сделать...

Они сделают, обязательно.
Но вряд ли будут спешить, потому что здесь обрывается проторенная дорожка, и позитивный опыт отсутствует.
То есть, требуется серьезная собственная проработка вопроса, включая всякие не очень приятные "зачем" и "почему".

Иными словами, они скорее здесь "возьмут паузу", чем "рванут в карьер".

Иными словами они сделают так как им надо, а не как нам хочется... :wink:

Само собой.
Хочется, думаю, не только нам, но и им (китайскому народу) тоже.
Касаемо готовности - "мнение экспертов" из обсуждаемой выше статьи имхо полностью верное, тем более что ещё и не очень конкретное.

Ясно, что КНР не будет готова к лунной экспедиции ни сейчас, ни в ближайшие 5 лет. Прежде всего технологически. Но политически и финансово тоже.

На мой взгляд, технологическую неготовность они преодолеют лет за 7-8, финансовую возможно и ещё раньше, но основное значение имеет всё же политическая составляющая этого этапного достижения.
И если предположить выведение на орбиту китайского аналога "Мира" в 2020 г, и последующее дооснащение его модулями с организацией международных экспедиций, то в политическом плане получаемого пиара китайских технологий им лет на 5 вполне хватит.

Так что, на мой взгляд, раньше 2025 г "Китайской пилотируемой Луны" скорее всего не будет.
Если только раскладка геополитических сил не потерпит серьёзных переломов (а они вполне возможны).

Если же что-либо принудит китайцев высадиться в 2025 или раньше, то никакой 9-метровой (в диаметре) суперракеты они строить не будут, а полетят на чём-то 5-метровом (см. выше.  :roll: ).
Грузоподъемность такой РН тонн 60, так что с применением доработанного "Шэньчжоу" двухпусковой схемы вполне хватит для полёта трёх тайконавтов на ОЛО с высадкой двоих на поверхность.

[PIN]

технологическую неготовность они преодолеют лет за 7-8, финансовую возможно и ещё раньше

Финансовые возможности Китая совершенно непредсказуемы, времена меняются. И политические риски велики. Посему, горизонт прогноза в данном случае - ну максимум года 3.

[instml]

Китайцы замахиваются на 2 кг

Mission to bring back lunar soil
Module will collect samples from moon's surface, space official says

Preparations are well advanced to launch a moon mission and bring about 2 kilograms of lunar soil samples to Earth, a leading space program official said. The mission is part of the third phase of the lunar exploration program.

Engineers are expected to lay the groundwork this year, said Hu Hao, chief designer of the lunar exploration program's third phase and a deputy to the National People's Congress, which ended on Wednesday.

The mission will involve a "relay" approach, that will require precision rendezvous and docking in lunar orbit, he said.

The mission will see a rocket launched from Earth. A four-module spacecraft will then enter lunar orbit.

Two modules will land on the moon, one will scoop up soil. This will be placed into the ascending module that will blast off from the lunar surface and dock with the orbiting module. The sample will then be transferred from this module to one that will be jettisoned for Earth re-entry.

Declining to confirm the launch date, though previous reports suggested 2017, Hu said that several key technologies have to be perfected, including the launch of the ascending module from the lunar surface and the collection of soil samples.

"It's impossible to know the conditions that the module descending onto the moon will experience," he said.

They could be sandy, or rocky, and collecting soil samples depends on the type of conditions at the landing site, he said.

Getting samples is notoriously difficult. A mission sent by the former Soviet Union once had a drill attached to the landing module but even that failed to deeply penetrate the lunar surface.

Its three missions collected just over 300 grams of lunar soil. The United States had better success. Its Apollo program returned 381.7 kilograms of rocks and other material from the moon, thanks in large part to astronauts. The US gave China one gram of lunar soil as a gift in 1978. China requires lunar soil to conduct scientific research.

Judging just how much lunar soil can be scooped up and returned to Earth is difficult.

"Our mission is also a robotic mission. Scientists expect the mission to bring back 2 kilograms of lunar soil but the exact amount of soil returned might be less," he said.

Rendezvous and docking in a lunar orbit also poses challenges. But lessons can be learned from previous rendezvous and docking between the unmanned Shenzhou VIII spacecraft and Tiangong-1 space lab module, he said.

"A lunar-orbit rendezvous is more than 300,000 km from Earth. It will fully test our telemetry, track and command systems," he said.

Engineers also have to solve the re-entry problem. The return capsule will be hurtling to Earth at, or close to, speeds of 11.2 km per second. This speed will be faster than returning manned spacecraft, which re-enter at 7.9 km per second.

Ensuring a safe return at this speed is one of the challenges, he added. China's lunar exploration program has three stages; orbiting, landing and returning.

Currently China is in the second stage, with three lunar exploring spacecraft, Chang'e-2, Chang'e-3 and Chang'e-4.

Ye Peijian, chief commander of the third lunar probe, Chang'e-3, at the China Academy of Space Technology, said that it is expected to be launched next year to conduct lunar exploration.

Different from the previous two orbiters and other spacecraft China designed, Chang'e-3 is the first spacecraft with "legs" to support itself in landing, he said, adding that previous manned spacecraft used parachutes.

The orbiter will carry a lunar rover and other instruments for surveys and observation, said Ye, a member of the top political advisory body.

The 100-kg lunar rover, China's first such device, is designed to operate on the moon for more than three months and during this time it will encounter extreme conditions, including temperatures below -170 C.

China launched Chang'e-1 in 2007 and Chang'e-2 in 2010. The first probe retrieved a great deal of scientific data and a complete map of the moon while the second created a full higher-resolution map of the moon.

The Chang'e-2 is now on an extensive exploration mission some 1.5 million km from Earth. Ye said it is in good condition and scientists are planning its next stage.

"It could fly toward the Earth to test returning orbit for future spacecraft or travel farther to explore an asteroid," he said.

http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012-03/16/content_14845488.htm

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http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=26848.msg874021#msg874021

What is new to me in this article is that the Chinese will not be doing a direct return to Earth from the lunar surface - as the Soviet Union did with its sample-return missions - but they plan to launch back into selenocentric orbit, perform a docking and then come back to Earth.

The unmanned rendezvous in selenocentric orbit will be a major space "first" if the Chinese pull it off: I wonder why they have chosen this approach.   Maybe they are thinking of proving some technologies for a Mars sample-return mission during the 2020s using the heavy-lift launch vehicle or multiple CZ-5 launches?

Белый и пушистый зверек подкрадывается незаметно

[ronatu]

At its peak the USSR was about 50% of the GDP of the USA.

At the end of 2012, China, Hong Kong and Macau GDP will be about $8.3 trillion.

The USA will have about $15.6 trillion. China will be about 53.2% of the US economy.

China's nominal GDP compared to the USA is passing the peak level of the Soviet Union nominal GDP estimate compared to the USA.

Macau had 20.7% GDP growth in 2011, and is projected to have 18% in 2012 and 14.4% in 2013 Macau had GDP of $36.1 billion at the end of 2011. At the end of 2012 it would have 43 billion in GDP and 50 billion at the end of 2013.

China has 3 times as much GDP now than the combined countries that make up the old Soviet Union (if they were still unified.)

On a purchasing power parity basis China has 3.5 to 7 times the PPP GDP of the soviet union. China has 4.75 times as much population.

[Salo]

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/sci/2012-07/30/c_131747665.htm

New engine passes test and revs up space hopes
English.news.cn 2012-07-30 10:49:13

By Xin Dingding

A next-generation engine, that will pave the way for lunar exploration, was successfully tested on Sunday.

The engine, with a 120-ton-thrust using liquid oxygen (LOX) and kerosene, will enable the Long March 5 carrier rocket - which is expected to make its maiden voyage in 2014 - to place a 25-ton payload into near-Earth orbit, or place a 14-ton payload into geostationary orbit, experts said.

The tests, which included seeing how the engine would respond to rotational speeds of nearly 20,000 revolutions per minute and temperatures of 3,000 C for 200 seconds, were held in Xi'an, capital of Shaanxi province.

"The successful tests confirm the reliability of China's LOX/kerosene engine," said Lai Daichu, test commander.

Tan Yonghua, head of Xi'an Aerospace Propulsion Institute under the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp, which developed the engine, said that the single engine currently used by Long March carrier rockets only has a 75-ton thrust, much less than the 120-ton thrust of the new engine.

Luan Xiting, deputy head of the institute, said that the new engine's extra thrust will enable China to assemble a space station and also help with the third stage of the lunar exploration program.

The three stages involve orbit, landing and return.

Earlier reports said that the Chang'e-5 lunar explorer will bring about 2 kg of lunar samples to Earth.

Ouyang Ziyuan, a senior consultant in the lunar exploration program and a member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that Chang'e-5 will be launched atop the Long March 5 carrier rocket fr om the new space launch center in Wenchang, Hainan province, which is under construction.

The space program is in the second stage, with three lunar exploration spacecraft, Chang'e 2, Chang'e 3 and Chang'e 4.

Ouyang said in a recent e-mail reply to China Daily that China will launch its third lunar explorer, Chang'e 3, next year to land on the moon.

A rover will explore its surroundings.

The landing is expected to be the most challenging part of the mission, he said.

Chang'e 3 will hover about 4 meters above the lunar surface.

Then the engine will cut out, and the Chang'e 3 will drop onto the surface.

As for the rover, the leading scientist in lunar exploration said it is "China's most advanced robot".

The rover carries a lunar "radar" and while it is operating on the surface it can scan several hundred meters under the surface.

The rover also carries instruments that can detect minerals.

To combat nighttime temperatures, -180 C, scientists have developed nuclear-powered batteries that can help the lander and rover function.

They will conserve energy by "hibernating" and when the sun rises the solar energy will "wake" the lander and the rover, he said.

Ouyang said the second lunar orbiter, Chang'e 2, has traveled to explore an asteroid.

The asteroid, 4179 Toutatis, is listed as a potentially hazardous object by scientists because it makes frequent Earth fly pasts.

Prior to traveling into deep space, Chang'e 2, launched in October 2010, completed its six-month mission and spent 235 days some 1.5 million km from Earth, wh ere it gathered a large amount of scientific data about solar activity, he said.

It started its quest for the asteroid on April 15, and is expected to observe the asteroid close up, he said.

(Source: China Daily)

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http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?showtopic=3105&view=findpost&p=194213

Chang'e 5 atmospheric re-entry and parachute ejection system tested.                                       

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Lunar mission：craft to conduct re-entry tests before 2015

 By Xin Dingding
BEIJING, March 14 (Xinhuanet) -- An experimental spacecraft will be launched before 2015 to conduct crucial re-entry tests on the capsule to be used in the Chang'e-5 lunar-sample mission, a leading space program official said.
Chang'e-5 is expected to be China's first lunar explorer to return to Earth. The mission will be carried out before 2020.
The experimental spacecraft will consist of the Chang'e-2 lunar orbiter base structure as well as the return capsule that will be used by the Chang'e-5, said Hu Hao, chief designer of the lunar exploration program's third phase and a deputy to the National People's Congress.
"Scientists believe we need to launch the spacecraft to prove that our current technical plan can actually bring Chang'e-5 home safely," Hu told China Daily on the sidelines of the NPC annual session.
He explained that when the Chang'e-5 returns to Earth with samples of lunar soil, the capsule will be hurtling through Earth's atmosphere at, or close to, speeds of 11.2 km per second.
"The re-entry speed means the return capsule could overheat or prove difficult to track and control," he said.
None of China's spacecraft have ever re-entered the atmosphere so fast and no simulation test can recreate the challenge, he said.
"The Chang'e-5 mission will enter the prototype phase this year," he said. The mission involves a "relay" approach that requires precision rendezvous and docking in lunar orbit.
After launch, the Chang'e-5 will head straight for lunar orbit. Two modules will separate and land on the moon, with one collecting soil samples.
The samples will be placed in the ascending module that will blast off from the lunar surface and dock with the orbiting module. The sample will then be transferred from this module to one that will be used for re-entry.
Yan Jun, head of the National Astronomical Observatories of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and chief scientist of the lunar exploration program, said some of the soil will be scooped up from the surface, but some will be taken from a depth of 2 meters.
The three-step lunar exploration program features "circle, land and return".
China has launched two lunar probes, Chang'e-1 and 2, both having circled the moon. Chang'e-3 will blast off in the second half of this year to become the country's first lunar explorer to soft land on the moon.
(Source: China Daily)

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-03/14/c_132232333.htm

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China plans to launch Chang'e-5 in 2017

BEIJING, Dec. 16 (Xinhua) -- China plans to launch lunar probe Chang'e-5 in 2017, according to the State Administration of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense.

"The development of Chang'e-5 is proceeding smoothly," said the administration's spokesman Wu Zhijian at a press conference on Monday.

The just-concluded Chang'e-3 mission marked completion of the second phase of the country's lunar program, which includes orbiting, landing and returning to Earth.

The lunar program will enter the next stage of unmanned sampling and returning, which will include Chang'e-5 and 6 missions, according to Wu.

"The program's third phase will be more difficult because many breakthroughs must be made in key technologies such as moon surface takeoff, sampling encapsulation, rendezvous and docking in lunar orbit, and high-speed Earth reentry, which are all new to China," Wu said.

As the backup probe of Chang'e-3, Chang'e-4 will be adapted to verify technologies for Chang'e-5, according to Wu.

China's Chang'e-1 and Chang'e-2 missions were in 2007 and 2010.

Launched on Oct. 1, 2010, Chang'e-2 is about 65 million km from Earth and is China's first man-made asteroid. It is heading for deep space.

"The completion of the third phase will not mean an end of China's lunar probe program," Wu said. "It should be a new starting point."

Wu, however, said follow-up plans for lunar exploration after the third phase is completed are still being studied.

As for deep space exploration, Wu said, "Experts have reached some consensuses and scientists are studying and drawing up integrated plans."

Chang'e-3 lunar probe succeeded in soft landing on the moon Saturday evening. The country's first moon rover, which was on board the probe, separated from the lander early on Sunday. The two photographed each other on the moon's surface Sunday night.

Under the program, China has made breakthroughs in key technologies, which have enabled the lunar probe to land on the moon and deploy a moon rover, Wu said.

"We have also laid a solid foundation for future exploration of deep space," he said.

In response to questions about working with other countries in this field, Wu said China is always positive about international cooperation in lunar exploration.

"We have had very good cooperation with other countries and international organizations in previous missions," he said.

Data collected through the Chang'e-1 and Chang'e-2 probes are open to scientists across the world, according to Wu.

China shared information collected by Chang'e-1 with the European Space Agency (ESA), and an ESA aerospace control center and three of its telecommand telemetry control stations took part in the Chang'e-3 mission, he said.

"In the next stage of the lunar program, there will be more international cooperation," he said.

"Despite current progress, China still lags behind space giants like the United States and Russia in many aspects," he said. "We need to work harder and move faster."

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/sci/2013-12/16/c_132971844.htm

[instml]

Re-entry test for Chang'e 5 was conducted successfully in the Gobi desert. Chang'e 5 will be China's first moon sample return mission.



https://www.facebook.com/ChinaSpace

[cross-track]

instml пишет:
Re-entry test for Chang'e 5 was conducted successfully in the Gobi desert. Chang'e 5 will be China's first moon sample return mission.

 

 https://www.facebook.com/ChinaSpace

Возвращаем шарик с внушительными размерами. Вроде собираются 2 килограмма привезти с Луны?

[instml]

Вроде собираются!

[Veganin]

cross-track пишет:

instml пишет:
Re-entry test for Chang'e 5 was conducted successfully in the Gobi desert. Chang'e 5 will be China's first moon sample return mission.

 

 https://www.facebook.com/ChinaSpace

Возвращаем шарик с внушительными размерами. Вроде собираются 2 килограмма привезти с Луны?

instml пишет:
Вроде собираются!

CZ-5 к Луне может отправить больше ПН, чем Протон-М. Почему бы нет?

[cross-track]

Veganin пишет:
CZ-5 к Луне может отправить больше ПН, чем Протон-М. Почему бы нет?

Советские лунники доставляли на Землю, если не путаю, меньше 200 гр. Т.е. китайцы - на порядок больше?

[Виктор Левашов]

Но тогда электроника была в 10-ки раз тяжелее. Вот и ...

[N]

[Дмитрий]

Китайцы конечно могут сделать экспедицию на Луну.Например, послать на нее только одного тайконавта.
Лететь до Луны три дня.Один человек легко выдержит такую экспедицию. Посадку на Луну может сделать только робот.Тогда стоимость экспедиции резко снижается.
2.Экспедиция начнется с запуска космической станции, которая будет пустой, без космонавтов.
Скажем весом в 5 тонн.
Она будет летать по очень вытянутой эллиптической орбите.
 Станция- аппарат типа Союза или китайского космического корабля , но без спускаемого аппарата.
Нижняя точка орбиты на высоте примерно 500 км от поверхности Земли, дальняя скажем 400 000 км.Состыковавшись с такой станцией, и затем не тратя топливо можно долететь до Луны.
Затем отстыковаться от станции, часть лунного корабля будет вращаться на околунной орбите, вторая часть прилунится. После окончания экспедиции космический корпабль опять состыкуется со станцией и вернется к Земле.
Вопрос баллистикам. Сколько нужно затратить топлива, чтобы вывести станцию весом в 5 тонн на такую вытянутую эллиптическую орбиту?

[pkl]

Я думаю, китайцы сделают нормальную пилотируемую экспедицию на Луну. Когда соберутся. А пока запустят нормальную АМС. Проект у Вас какой-то... странный. Что, опять "Джемини-Центавр" придумываем?