Последний "Titan-IV" и первая "Delta-IV"

[carlos]

Прошло предупреждение о предстоящем запуске "Титана".

NROL-20 - the final Titan-IV - is scheduled for launch from VAFB on 2005 Oct 19
between 16:00 and 20:00 UTC.

The aviation NOTAMs were issued overnight, and they reveal a launch azimuth similar to that of a standard KH, so there is no way this going to a 116.6 deg inclination 8X orbit:

A0524/05 (10/073) -  RESTRICTED AREA ACTIVATED CARF NR. 1223 ON 2 ROPS AIROP
D0-0502 STATIONARY RESERVATION WITHIN AN AREA BNDD BY 3421N/12038W 3422N/12043W
3438N/12039W 3437N/12034W WITHIN AN AREA BNDD BY 2630N/12253W 3252N/12124W
3244N/12035W 2621N/12207W WITHIN AN AREA BNDD BY 1307N/12533W 1627N/12452W
1624N/12435W 1303N/12516W SFC UNL 19 OCT 15:45 UNTIL 19 OCT 20:24

The comparable NOTAMs for the KH launched in 2001 Oct, defined 5 hazard areas, while the one for NROL-20 defines just 3. It will be interesting to see whether the marine NOTAMs are any different.

I am not certain that this difference means all that much. It looks like the 3 middle hazard areas of 2001 Oct have been covered by a single, longer area on this flight.

Also, the final hazard area (where the 1st stage falls) of 2001 Oct was 6 deg further south than that of this launch. This could suggest a heavier payload, resulting in a lower velocity at stage 1 burnout. Alternatively, it could mean a different altitude and fight-path angle at burn-out, which might not be all that significant - perhaps just a difference in the target argument of perigee.

Now all we need is the launch time. If this is headed for the standard western KH plane, then launch should be within minutes of 11:09 PDT = 18:09 UTC.

I expect to post search elements sometime before launch. Anyone having visibility of USA 129, should have visibility of the orbit of this launch.

Ted Molczan

[Старый]

Чтото както у них непонятно плоскости сдвинуты. Логично иметь одну с временем прохождения нисходящего узла 10:30 и вторую в полдень. А у них чтото вправо заползло...
 Какоеу вас мнение, почему?

[carlos]

Да вроде как не попадает он ни в одну из Кихоуловских плоскостей - ни с 129-м, ни с 161-м?

[Старый]

Да вроде как не попадает он ни в одну из Кихоуловских плоскостей - ни с 129-м, ни с 161-м?

А куда попадает? Между?

[carlos]

Если запуск в 18:00 UTC - то да, где-то между. Примерно посередке. Если не вру. И если не предполагается маневров по рысканию на АУТ.

[carlos]

А Молчан вот считает, что запуск пойдет в западную кихоуловскую плоскость (туда, где 129-й)

The launch time and azimuth indicate that the western KeyHole orbital plane is
the target.
Assuming the same launch trajectory as the previous KeyHole (USA 161 / 01044A /26934) the Titan 2nd stage and payload would enter the following parking orbit:

Код Выделить Развернуть


                                                        175 X 1029 km
1 72001U          05292.79844637  .00807205  00000-0  10000-2 0    04
2 72001  97.8760 354.5813 0611200 101.3444 265.7048 14.87728598    06

Initially, the payload would trail by a short distance; within a day or two of launch, it would raise its perigee by about 100 km.
The argument of perigee could differ somewhat. If the intention is to match that of the current occupant of the target plane (USA 129 / 96072A / 24680), then the argument of perigee would be 117.3 deg.
I note that the down-range impact point of the 1st stage is nearly 700 km less than that of the previous KeyHole. Its range to impact is similar to that of USA 144 (aka Misty 2). I am not certain what to make of that.
Note also the report some time ago that the fairing is 10 ft longer than those of past KeyHoles (and 26 ft longer than USA 144's). So, I may post some alternative search elements.
Assuming that the above orbit is correct, then South Africa will have passes within a few hours of launch, followed some time later by New Zealand and Australia.

[Cтарый]

Ну вобщем пока в первом приближении явствует что это КН.
 Кстати, карлос, вы обещались подумать над моим тезисом что Терра это КН. Ну как, подумали?

[carlos]

Ага, щас ветку отдельную слелаю.

[carlos]

Так-с... Начинается...

Wednesday's launch of a Titan IV rocket from south Vandenberg AFB appears to remain on schedule. The final Titan IV is set to lift-off from SLC-4E at 11:04 PDT.
The Air Force's L-1 weather forecast calls for a 70% probability of acceptable launch weather. Some cloudcover is expected from 400 to 1,200 feet and from 27,000 to 30,000 feet.

Свежая информация здесь: http://www.spaceflightnow.com/titan/b26/status.html
Здесь циклограмма запуска: http://www.spaceflightnow.com/titan/b26/051016ascent.html
PS: Все-таки последний в истории "Титан". Больше не будет...

[carlos]

Ни фига себе: про обтекатель -

The rocket is sporting an unusual 48-foot long nose cone to protect its clandestine National Reconnaissance Office payload during the ascent through the atmosphere. The fairing started as a standard 76-foot shroud but was modified to the shortened length, Smith said.
A similar fairing was used in May 1999 when a Titan 4 launched from Vandenberg carrying what hobbyist sky watchers consider to be a mysterious "stealth" spy satellite.

Интересные вещи выясняются! Если конечно не гонево...

[carlos]

МИСТИ-3, блин! :shock:

[carlos]

Ой как много мыслей про обтекатели сразу появилось!

In order to understand the possible significance of the reported 48 ft fairing, it is necessary to review the different types of Titan-IV fairings that have flown from VAFB. What follows is my present understanding, subject to revision as more is learned.
For a long time, it was considered that VAFB payloads employed two lengths of fairing:

T-IV Type  Payload   Fairing     Orbit
   403     NOSS        56 ft   63.4 deg
   403     Lacrosse    66      57 or 68 deg
   404     KeyHole     66      98 deg

In 1999 came the launch of the mysterious USA 144, on a 404B Titan, to a 63.4 deg orbit. Justin Ray, reporting for Florida Today at the time, learned officially that the fairing had been 50 ft long. The launch occurred in the middle of a foggy night (how appropriate!), and the only photo I had at the time inadequately revealed the fairing, so I had no easy way to verify this.
However, Phil Chien recalled that a 50 ft fairing had long been listed in the T-IV's promotional literature. Indeed, an early T-IV brochure, kindly provided by Phil, listed only a 50 ft fairing for the model 404, which was confusing, since the KeyHole 404 launches to that time, were thought to have employed the 66 ft fairing.
Earlier this year, I made an effort to verify the fairing length of all past T-IV launches for which I could locate a useable photo, which led to me this one of USA 144:
http://www.nro.gov/graphics/launch5_99.jpg
Resolution and lighting are poor, but with moderate magnification and brightness/contrast adjustment, I believe I can make out the boundary between the vehicle and adapter (aka boat tail) section of the fairing, and the boundary between the cylindrical and conical sections of the fairing. Likewise, I believe I can adequately resolve the diameter of the cylindrical section. I get a ratio of length to width of around 1.7, which when multiplied by the known 16.67 ft diameter, yields a length of 28.3 ft, which accounts for the boat tail and
cylindrical section. The conical section cannot be measured, but all of them are 19.86 ft long, which brings the overall length to 48 ft - pretty close to the reported 50 ft.
In 2001 October, I learned of a new wrinkle in the story of VAFB fairings. Charles Vick posted to FPSPACE that the fairings of the KeyHoles launched in 1992, 1995 and 1996 had not been 66 ft, but rather 50 ft, which sat atop a special 14 ft adapter he describes as a bucket, which was permanently attached to the 2nd stage. This brought the overall length to just over 64 ft, which could easily have been mistaken for a 66 ft fairing. Adding yet another wrinkle, Charles also pointed out that the KeyHole launched in 2001 October was the first to have an actual 66 ft fairing.
In my exercise this year, I found that the pre-2001 KeyHole overall fairing length was 62 ft, close to Charles Vick's value of 64 ft. This seemed to roughly confirm that the fairing was 50 ft on top of a 14 ft bucket, which might explain the confusing claim of 50 ft in the old T-IV brochure.
Also, keeping in mind that the bucket was said to have remained attached to the 2nd stage, it might explain why the 2nd stage of the 1996 KeyHole (96072B /24681) was so much brighter than other T-IV 2nd stages:
http://satobs.org/seesat/Jan-1997/0003.html
My analysis of launch photos also confirmed that the 2001 KeyHole launch employed a 66 ft fairing.
So, based on my present understanding of the fairings, I interpret the news of a 48 ft fairing on today's scheduled  404B T-IV for launch, as follows:
If photographs reveal an overall length of 48 ft, then perhaps the payload is a Misty - the first to be targeted for one of the two standard KeyHole orbital planes.
If the overall length is around 62 to 64 ft, then it would appear to be a regular, i.e. non-stealthy KeyHole, reverting to the pre-2001 fairing length.

[carlos]

[Cтарый]

МИСТИ-3, блин! :shock:

Фу, блин! Я уж испугался - думал он уже запущен, отделил 4 фрагмента и пропал...

[Agent]

[Agent]

Усе. Спутник отделился.
Титан сделал свое дело.

[ATN]

Титан сделал свое дело.

Маск, наверное, в экстазе.  :lol:

[Agent]

Титан сделал свое дело.

Маск, наверное, в экстазе.  :lol:

С чего бы.... стол у него все равно отбирают под Атлас

[Cтарый]

Титан сделал свое дело.

Маск, наверное, в экстазе.  :lol:

С чего бы.... стол у него все равно отбирают под Атлас

А при чём тут стол то? У него свой стол. Ему не давали стартовать якобы потому что его Сокол мог спикировать на Титан.

[Agent]

А при чём тут стол то? У него свой стол. Ему не давали стартовать якобы потому что его Сокол мог спикировать на Титан.

Lockheed Martin moving back to use a Complex 3 East site at Vandenberg for Atlas 5 launches