Что заменит Дельту-2?

[Salo]

Статья на  Spaceflightnow:
http://www.spaceflightnow.com/news/n1002/16ulamedium/

ULA considers medium-lift launch market strategies
BY STEPHEN CLARK
SPACEFLIGHT NOW
Posted: February 16, 2010

United Launch Alliance is taking a wait-and-see approach in deciding how to pursue the medium-class launch market after it phases out the stalwart Delta 2 rocket family.

"We're waiting for the market to shape up," said Michael Gass, ULA president and CEO. "So the major driver is what's going to be the size of the market."

The company operates the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle fleet, made up of the Atlas 5 and Delta 4 rocket families, for a broad range of U.S. military, NASA and commercial payloads.

But current schedules call for ULA's smallest rocket, the Delta 2, to be retired in late 2011. The Delta 2 has long been a favorite booster for medium-class Earth observatories, planetary exploration probes and military satellites.

ULA will continue flying the larger Atlas 5 and Delta 4 vehicles, but those vehicles are tailored for larger missions, leaving the company on the sidelines in the medium launch market.


File photo of an Atlas 5 rocket launch from Cape Canaveral. Credit: Pat Corkery/ULA

The challenge is that launch market forecasts are notoriously finicky, especially in the medium sector, which is dominated by Earth observation payloads, according to industry officials.

In an interview with Spaceflight Now, Gass said United Launch Alliance is evaluating several options to stay in the intermediate market, including slashing costs on unsold Delta 2 vehicles or modifying the larger Atlas 5 and Delta 4 rockets to carry smaller payloads.

A critical factor in ULA's strategy will be the predicted size of the medium-lift market available to U.S. rockets.

"It's always about what is the market," Gass said.

Gass said ULA expects low demand for medium-class missions in the next decade.

"Right now, we see the market in the low range, at the best two to four [missions per year], or even less," Gass said.

Such numbers would be insufficient to justify fielding a rocket like the Delta 2 specifically aimed at the medium-class launch business.

NASA has been a leading customer for medium-class launch services, but the agency doesn't have any intermediate-sized payloads scheduled for launch between 2011 and 2014, according to William Wrobel, the outgoing assistant associate administrator for launch services.

Missions expected to launch in 2014, which include the SMAP and ICESat 2 Earth observation satellites, would need to be assigned rockets by around 2012.

By then, a new stable of rockets being developed by SpaceX and Orbital Sciences Corp. should be regularly launching, giving NASA other options for medium-class space transportation for satellites.

The Falcon 9 and Taurus 2 boosters are expected to begin flying in 2010 and 2011, respectively, to deliver cargo to the International Space Station under a commercial contract with NASA.

The Falcon 9, with lift capabilities between the Delta 2 and Delta 4 rockets, has already won a handful of contracts for commercial launches of communications satellites and Earth observation spacecraft. But NASA has not awarded any of its satellite missions to Falcon 9, even though the rocket is part of the NASA Launch Services contract, an open-ended agreement that puts the Falcon 9 in a pool of vehicles the agency can choose from to haul robotic platforms to space.

Commercial Soyuz rockets launching from the European spaceport in French Guiana will also be contending for commercial satellite operators in the medium-lift market.

NASA's proposed budget over the next five years includes funding for new Earth science spacecraft, and the bulk of the new missions will be in the lifting range of medium-sized rockets. NASA-operated Earth observation satellites almost exclusively launch into polar orbit from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif.

Delta and Atlas rockets regularly blast off from Vandenberg on polar orbit missions, giving ULA an advantage for launching new Earth science satellites. SpaceX is in talks with the Air Force to renovate a retired Vandenberg launch pad for Falcon 9 flights to polar orbit.

There are still five Delta 2 rockets available for purchase to meet any short-term demands, so ULA has time to wait and see how the market evolves before making any decisions on a new system.

   
File photo of a Delta 2 rocket on the launch pad. Credit: NASA-KSC
 

"If there really is a demand, we're going to try to price those Delta 2's to support that demand and see if the market shapes up and grows," Gass said.

The most powerful Delta 2 rocket version, with nine 46-inch-wide solid rocket boosters, can haul 13,440 pounds to low Earth orbit. All five remaining Delta 2 first stages are specially outfitted to fly in this Delta 2-Heavy configuration, but the rockets could be modified to fit other variants, Wrobel told Spaceflight Now last year.

"It's all a function of pricing it appropriately, and we're trying to demonstrate that we'll have the expertise to support it because the people that have supported Delta 2 are embedded in our operations, so the experience is still there," Gass said.

According to Gass, the leftover Delta 2 rockets could sustain the expected pace of medium-class launches through 2015. But maintaining ground facilities to support only a handful of flights will come with high costs.

"The challenge when you field a vehicle you're only launching once a year is to make sure you have the appropriate infrastructure, which comes with the cost, to able to support those missions with the same level of mission success and reliability that they expect from United Launch Alliance," Gass said.

"We have to convince the customer, but it's a challenge," Gass said. "It's not something that we'll make a lot of money on, but it's something that least keeps our presence in the medium market until the market shapes up and we have greater clarity on it."

After the Delta 2 is eventually retired, ULA plans to remain in the medium-lift business, but company leaders are still deciding the best strategy to pursue it.

Company officials are studying three alternatives:
Standalone vehicle: If ULA's slice of launch market for mid-range satellites is more than about five missions per year, the company could restart Delta 2 production or develop a dedicated rocket to execute the flights.

EELV with smaller upper stage: Under some scenarios, ULA could add a less powerful second stage to its Atlas 5 or Delta 4 rockets to provide lift capacity comparable to the Delta 2 rocket. During the Delta 4 booster's early development phase, officials planned a "Small" version with a solid-fueled second stage. The idea was scrapped because the Delta 2 served the same market.

Dual-payload EELV missions: If the medium-class launch outlook is thin, ULA could field a special payload adapter to launch two satellites at a time to similar orbits. This would be especially practical for missions bound for geosynchronous orbit, such as communications satellites, or Earth observation spacecraft headed for sun-synchronous orbit over Earth's poles.

"If the market's going to be one or two missions a year, then dual-payload is potentially the way to go," Gass said. "If it's anywhere from two to four launches a year, probably an upper stage that's tailored to the medium market would be the right thing utilizing the EELV infrastructure. If the market grows beyond that, and it's a steady market, then a standalone medium vehicle may be warranted."

ULA is already designing a dual-payload launch system baselined for the Atlas 5 rocket.


This diagram shows potential layouts of an Atlas 5 rocket four-meter payload fairing with dual payloads. The letters represent the fairing envelopes of other vehicles that would fit inside the Dual Spacecraft System. Credit: ULA

The Dual Spacecraft System would use existing Atlas 5 upper stage adapters to create a clamshell-like enclosure for a lower payload. Another satellite would ride in the upper position, allowing for spacecraft combinations of different sizes and missions, including pairing government and commercial payloads on the same flight.

The new adapter has already passed several design reviews under internal ULA funding. The Dual Spacecraft System would be available about 18 months after a customer's order, according to a paper presented at an American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics conference in 2008.

ULA is waiting for the launch market to stabilize before committing to one of the options.

"One of the things we have in the launch vehicle business, and we've proven it, is we can develop a launch vehicle faster than the market can develop satellites," Gass said. "By the time a satellite architecture is developed...in the time to come up with the concept, getting money, getting the satellite on order and getting the satellite ready to launch, we can develop a whole new launch vehicle inside that time."

"The satellite architecture is typically in the six-year timeframe, and we fielded the [Atlas 5 and Delta 4] systems in three years from the time we were fully turned on for development until first launch," Gass said.

[Петр Зайцев]

Скорее всего Таурус 2 будут использовать. Орбитал возил научные миссии и раньше, это вам не какой-нибудь SpaceX. А SpaceX будет протестовать, как всегда.

[Снусмумрик]

Скорее всего Таурус 2 будут использовать. Орбитал возил научные миссии и раньше, это вам не какой-нибудь SpaceX. А SpaceX будет протестовать, как всегда.

Эээээ? А где Таурус 2? Я понимаю, если бы он уже летал...  

Кстати, напоминаю, OSC недавно утопил научную миссию...  

[Дядя Бэн]

Дельту-2 нужно заменить "Протоном" и пусть они у нас его покупают

[Salo]

:lol:  :lol:  :lol:
Посмеялси!

[Salo]

Скорее всего Таурус 2 будут использовать. Орбитал возил научные миссии и раньше, это вам не какой-нибудь SpaceX. А SpaceX будет протестовать, как всегда.

Не будет. У них нет F5.
А F9 в другом классе.

[Старый]

Дельта-4 и заменит. Без ускорителей.

[Salo]

В этом случае только даблшот. Или нужно ставить вторую твердотопливную ступень.

[Alex_II]

Скорее всего Таурус 2 будут использовать. Орбитал возил научные миссии и раньше, это вам не какой-нибудь SpaceX. А SpaceX будет протестовать, как всегда.

Не будет. У них нет F5.
А F9 в другом классе.

А что им помешает УМЕНЬШИТЬ количество двигателей на первой ступени? Или там много прочих переделок?

[Чебурашка]

Не, самый оптимальный вариант - downgrade лёгких версий EELV путём установки более лёгкой и дешёвой верхней сутпени.

[Salo]

Метод дихотомии хорош только в математике. :roll:

[SpaceR]

Первое время заменять будут действующие Атласы и Дельты + 1й Таурус. Чуть попозже подключатся Фалконы и Таурус II.
Ещё позже, очень вероятно, что Афина III. АТК ведь нельзя оставлять без заказов после прекращения производства RSRM. (хотя, будет ли прекращение производства - вопрос...  :roll: )

[Salo]

Какие из Фалконов?

[SpaceR]

Какие из Фалконов?

Да все (включая Ф-5 и Трифалкон-1   ). Лишь бы энергетики хватало и цена устраивала.
Ясно ведь, что речь идет о разовых (но более-менее постоянных) гос. заказах пусков для КА разной массы и на различные орбиты. Какой смысл привязываться конкретно к возможностям Дельты-2 ?
Да, энергетика всего этого зверинца неоднократно пересекается, и разные конюшни будут конкурировать за получение заказа - а NASA только этого и надо.

[Salo]

В том то и дело, что Ф5 нет. А Ф-9 только даблшотом.

[SpaceR]

В том то и дело, что Ф5 нет. А Ф-9 только даблшотом.

Гм, а Вы мой вышеприведенный пост целиком прочли?

[Salo]

Ещё один несостоявшийся вариант замены Delta-2:

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=16895.0
Похоже они переключились на Atlas V CCB в качестве первой ступени. Кстати, удивительно, что проэкт до сих пор не закрыт. А уж как заявленный УИ подрос за годы задержки. Начинали с 323, теперь Кайл говорит 355.
-- Pete

http://www.ulalaunch.com/docs/product_sheet/GXProductCard.pdf 261 Кб

[Salo]

http://www.spaceflightnow.com/news/n1109/30nls2delta2/

Delta 2 rocket could win new NASA launch assignments[/size]
BY JUSTIN RAY
SPACEFLIGHT NOW
Posted: October 1, 2011

With its final scheduled flight looming just three weeks away, the workhorse Delta 2 rocket has won the right to rejoin the competition for future NASA satellite launches.

NASA announced Friday that the vehicle will take an "on-ramp" to again be included on the roster of rockets that the space agency can chose from when deciding launch assignments.


A Delta 2 rocket stands on its Vandenberg launch pad. Credit: William G. Hartenstein/Boeing
 
But the news is no guarantee the Delta 2 will be picked by NASA to deploy upcoming satellites. It simply means the rocket can fight for future launches of medium-class payloads against rivals such as Orbital Sciences, SpaceX and Lockheed Martin.

"We are extremely pleased NASA has added the reliable Delta 2 to the NLS-2 contract and look forward to continuing the legacy of the program," Michael Gass, United Launch Alliance's president and CEO, said in a press release. "ULA has demonstrated its ability to fully integrate Atlas 5, Delta 4 and Delta 2 product lines allowing us to continue offering medium launch capability at the best value for our customers."

When NASA announced its new contracting system a year ago, the Delta 2 was no longer included in the available lineup of rockets for the agency to use.

The so-called NASA Launch Services-2 contract enables boosters to be purchased by NASA for unmanned spacecraft missions over the next 10 years.

The Delta 2's exclusion meant it was unable to bid on prospective NASA launches, and the situation suggested the rocket's flying days could be ending because the U.S. Air Force also had left the rocket.

As the original backer of the Delta 2's creation in the 1980s, the Air Force successfully used the rocket for two decades to construct the Global Positioning System and sustain the orbiting constellation via dozens of launches to construct.

But when the military steered its next-generation GPS satellites to the new Atlas 5 and Delta 4 vehicles, the Delta 2 lost its anchor tenant. Launch pricing and the capabilities offered by the rockets combined with a diminishing mid-size satellite market dealt tough blows to the Delta 2's future.

"The medium-class market that Delta 2 has served for so many decade has really shrunk over the last few years. It's just hard to find a business case that works, that allows you to be able to launch the one or two per year that market demands right now and be able to do it for a reasonable price," Vernon Thorp, United Launch Alliance's program manager for NASA missions, said at a recent press conference.

"The reason we're able to still do it for the next few years is because since ULA was formed we've been able to integrate our launch teams, our engineering teams, our factories, everything else so we're sharing resources between the Delta 4 program and the Atlas program with Delta 2. So we're able to take advantage of that and still keep that launch service affordable."

The Delta 2 has flown 150 times since 1989, accumulating a 98.7 percent reliability record, including 95 successes in a row over the past 14 years.


File image of a Delta 2 rocket launch from Vandenberg. Credit: William G. Hartenstein/Boeing
 
Its next -- and possibly final -- mission is scheduled for Oct. 25 from Vandenberg Air Force, California, carrying the NPP climate and weather satellite. It will be 50th time the Delta 2 has performed a mission for NASA.

Whether there will be a 51st depends if the Delta 2 can snare a firm assignment through the NLS-2 contracting system. NASA has a handful of science satellites currently being designed that fit into the rocket's weight class that will need launched into polar orbits over the next few years from the West Coast.

ULA has parts to build as many as five Delta 2 rockets.

"The big question right now is will there be more Delta 2s? We certainly hope from ULA's perspective that there will be. We have enough inventory left to build five more, we have all the skills that we need in-house to be able to perform those missions for the reasons I just explained -- we have an integrated team now between Atlas and Delta. We are in discussions with several commercial and government customers regarding the possibility of future sales. You know that NASA is one of those organizations we're talking to," said Thorp.

"We hope sometime in the near-future that results in a few more missions, and those would most likely be missions out of Vandenberg."

Those five remaining "white tail" Delta 2 rockets were once envisioned to fly in the Heavy configuration with 46-inch-diameter strap-on solid motors. Since the pad at Vandenberg cannot accommodate the bigger boosters, ULA will need to purchase the regular 40-inch motors from builder Alliant Techsystems for any potential future flights.

"ULA has moved into a situation where they can get the contractor -- ATK -- for the GEM-40's, the Delta 2 standard solids, such that it'd be roughly a 24-27 month lead time," NASA launch director Tim Dunn said in a recent interview.

If a Delta 2 launch is ordered by NASA, that production time for new boosters would be feasible, Dunn said.

"From the time they win a contract till the time we launch is generally 30-36 months. So they could then turn ATK on for the specific mission -- a four-solid mission, a three-solid mission or a nine-solid mission."[/size]

[Танк]

Господам делать нечего...
Прекрасная ракета, я бы ее не стал менять!

[Salo]

Осталось только пять штук, да и те в тяжёлой модификации и неукомплектованные ТТУ. ТТУ вроде бы при наличии контракта  обещают сделать. А возобновление производства только при пяти пусках в год.