6 КА – Церера-2 (Ceres-2 / GSX-2) Y1 – Цзюцюань (JSLC) – 17.01.2026 04:08 UTC -- авария

[zandr]

https://x.com/AJ_FI/status/1980904122808431043

Andrew Jones  @AJ_FI
Galactic Energy has released the mission patch for the first launch of the Ceres-2 solid rocket. Launch sometime in the near future.

Вроде бы тема уже открывалась, но... не нашёл. (

[zandr]

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=61866.msg2721900#msg2721900

The flight model on its TE

[zandr]

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=61866.msg2730464#msg2730464

It is said this will be launched on November 15-20.

[Zmej Gorynych]

Интересно, а из-за сегодняшней аварии они переносить не будут? Или там совсем иная конструкция?

[zandr]

https://x.com/Cosmic_Penguin/status/1998872762065276975

Cosmic Penguin  @Cosmic_Penguin
The other is a launch from Jiuquan SLC towards SSO...
...
The zones' locations make up a combo not seen before, which means...huh?

Yup, Galactic Energy's Ceres-2 rocket is likely debuting on December 15 ~04:05 UTC.

[zandr]

На основании

На 15 декабря:

A0824/25 NOTAMN
Q) VCCF/QRDCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/0029S09059E105
A) VCCF B) 2512150400 C) 2512200600
D) 0400-0600
E) IN VIEW OF DNG ZONE DECLARED BY CAA CHINA DUE TO AEROSPACE FLT
ACTIVITY, FLW AREA WI COLOMBO FIR BOUNDED BY GIVEN COORD DECLARED AS
A TEMPO DNG AREA.
010726N 0904105E - 005403N 0915227E - 020000S 0911848E -020000S
0900543E - 010726N 0904105E
DRG THIS PERIOD FLW ATS RTE SEGMENTS ARE NOT AVBL IN COLOMBO FIR.
01. L897 NOT AVBL BTN 'MATLU' AND 'KETIV'
02. N628 NOT AVBL BTN 'BASEV' AND 'KETIV'
03. L774 NOT AVBL BTN 'ELATI' AND 'KETIV'
F) SFC G) UNL

[zandr]

Те отменили, но теперь назначили новые
https://x.com/Cosmic_Penguin/status/2003695252172079566

Cosmic Penguin  @Cosmic_Penguin
Thinking 2 brand new Chinese launchers debuting this December is not enough? Well there apparently WILL be a 3rd one! After a scrub on launch day on December 15th, Galactic Energy's 1st Ceres-2 is back for launch on December 27 ~04:05 UTC per new NOTAMs.

[zandr]

https://x.com/Cosmic_Penguin/status/2003695252172079566

Cosmic Penguin  @Cosmic_Penguin
Rumors circulating was the Ceres-2's 1st stage motor nozzle bumping on something while rotating to vertical on the 15th (see diagram below), but given it's back within 2 weeks it seems it wasn't seriously damaged.
We still don't know what's (6 sats apparently) flying on it though

[zandr]

Cosmic Penguin  @Cosmic_Penguin
...or maybe not yet. All these NOTAMs were cancelled just a day after they were released.

NOTAM на 27 декабря отменён. 

[zandr]

https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/8055/

Demo Flight
Liftoff Time (UTC)
04:05:00
Saturday January 17, 2026

[zandr]

Ace of Razgriz  @raz_liu
Long waited Ceres-2 was lifted-off from JSLC

Пуск состоялся.

[zandr]

Ace of Razgriz  @raz_liu
NOT looking good

[zandr]

https://x.com/Cosmic_Penguin/status/2012383679272591475

Cosmic Penguin  @Cosmic_Penguin
Damn, seems like it's 1st stage failure too...

[zandr]

https://x.com/raz_liu/status/2012383218713162196

Ace of Razgriz  @raz_liu
Ceres-2 is likely failed. pic via https://weibo.com/2645044133/QnwcrbB7V

Вывод о неудаче только из этих фото 

[zandr]

Jonathan McDowell  @planet4589
LAUNCH and apparently *another* failure - at 0408 UTC Jan 17 of the first Gushenxing-2 from Jiuquan

[Tordent]

Да. Как-то не очень год начинается. Если исключить Фалкон, из 7 пусков этого года уже 3 неудачных.

[zandr]

Подтвердили неудачу
http://www.chinaview.cn/20260117/f342e08760dd490abd90565a0e29562c/c.html

CERES-2 commercial carrier rocket fails in maiden flight
^{Source: Xinhua  Editor: huaxia  2026-01-17 15:08:30}   
JIUQUAN, Jan. 17 (Xinhua) -- The CERES-2, a privately-developed commercial carrier rocket, failed during its first flight test on Saturday.

The rocket blasted off at 12:08 p.m. (Beijing Time) at Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in northwest China, but an anomaly occurred during its flight.
The cause of this failure is under investigation.

[anik]

Хм...

https://bsky.app/profile/planet4589.bsky.social/post/3mcnpcbkqmk2b

I am so glad I wrote "apparently". To my surprise, US Space Force has cataloged 2016-012A / 67483 in a 566 x 578 km x 97.5 deg orbit passing right over Jiuquan at launch time. Success after all?

Это что такое там достигло орбиты?

[zandr]

Он же чуть позже пишет, что это какой-то глюк

Jonathan McDowell  @planet4589
The balance of the evidence now seems to be that the Gushenxing-2 was indeed a failure, and the Space Force 2026-012A launch was either a mis-tag, a search elset that slipped through, or an AI hallucination.

[zandr]

Стоп!
Номер 2016-012 может быть связан с объектом этого запуска только если под 2016-011 будет нечто от аварийного же запуска
2026-F02 Шицзянь-32 (Shijian-32) – CZ-3B – Сичан (XSLC) – 16.01.2026 16:55 UTC – авария
 

Или он каталогизирован позже, чем стартовавший за ним NROL-105