Солнечные паруса.

[Agent]

Плохой день...

[slipstream]

Jun 21, 2005 | 15:13 PDT | 22:13 UTC
Launch plus 2 hours 28 min

So what does this mean?

What this means is that we've still got a couple good news pieces -- data from the spacecraft -- but we have bad news data -- no tracking from Space Comm. We just don't know. It's frustrating.

What's making it harder to say anything is the fact that we have some data that's conflicting. There was some data that was received from the launch vehicle about 200-250 seconds after the launch. After that, there may have been something wrong with it, or some ambiguity in it. But what that ambiguity is, we don't understand -- because the only information on it came via cell phone from the Navy Severomorsk. No one here or in Moscow has seen what that data looks like.

Then there's this other data, the Doppler data that we got from Kamchatka. The data came both before the orbit insertion burn, and during the burn. That data indicates that the spacecraft was working at least partially properly at that time -- which is awfully confusing if there was a launch vehicle problem.

Actually, if it turns out that there was something wrong, that Kamchatka data will be immensely valuable. And at least the worst conceiveable outcome HAS NOT happened -- the spacecraft WAS heard from over Kamchatka. Some data is way better than no data.

On the other hand, there's that lack of detection by Space Command. At a minimum, that means that the spacecraft was not where Space Command expected it to be, which is a big worry. There are two possibilities. Either the orbit is not the nominal one -- it's not in the right place, but it is in AN orbit -- or it didn't go into orbit. The third possibility is that Space Command messed up, but that's less likely than the other two. We have absolutely no idea which of those possibilities is true.

[slipstream]

Jun 21, 2005 | 15:31 PDT | 22:31 UTC
Launch plus 2 hours 45 min

Too much noise, not enough analysis

That about sums it up.

There was an interesting question just asked at the press conference: What were we most worried about? Bruce answered that the sail deployment was the most worrisome moment in this mission, and I actually always felt the same way. We just were not that worried about the launch vehicle. We were a little worried about the orbit insertion burn, but not the launch vehicle -- we were pretty confident about that. So if we did have a launch vehicle "anomaly," (that is, if something went wrong with the launch vehicle), then we will be surprised and dismayed about that.

Still, though, no analysis. No surety. We just don't know anything for sure. There's only lots of speculation.


// ps: записи в блоге однако появляются не сразу полностью %)

[Agent]

Хотя здесь http://planetary.org/solarsailblog/index_03.html
пока утверждают, что какойто шум принимают

[mike]

Плохой день...

Мда деньки пошли... Интересно аппарат застрахован был?

[Agent]

Вот это - "no tracking from Space Comm" - удручает.
Разве что СпейсКом пока вобще не отзывался

[Agent]

Плохой день...

Мда деньки пошли... Интересно аппарат застрахован был?

Завтра узнаем - была ли это черная полоса, или белая - Зенит уже на старте.
А послезавтра - Протон

[mike]

Кстати через две недели был запланирован следующий запуск Волны с Демонстратором-2R...

[slipstream]

// The Planetary Society's Cosmos 1 Weblog
// пересортировано в прямом порядке

Jun 21, 2005 | 15:43 PDT | 22:43 UTC
Launch plus 2 hours 57 min

What the Doppler data says

...it doesn't say anything for sure. It does look like there is at least something in there that indicates that something started nominally. That is, it looked smooth, and then it looked the velocity was increasing as expected, and then all of a sudden it goes noisy.

Now, "noise" is actually a real technical term. "Noise" means that the data looks scruffy and rough. There's no clear pattern to it. Patterns represent information. Lack of pattern represents lack of information. Now, there could be a pattern in that data that we just don't understand yet. Once that pattern comes into focus, it should tell us something about what was going on with the spacecraft. We'll keep analyzing. Moscow will too.

Also, I hasten to add that what looks like "noise" now isn't necessarily bad. The rocket was probably firing during that noisy period, and that alone could have made the data noisy.

Jun 21, 2005 | 15:52 PDT | 22:52 UTC
Launch plus 3 hours 6 min

So, how do you feel?

Another good question, and a good answer from Lou: that he was not feeling anything yet, or at least trying not to. We don't know what to feel. Annie says she feels numb. As for me, I feel very detached. I feel like a pipe through which information is flowing. What does the pipe feel?

I think it's hard to know what to feel when we just don't know what happened. If it was a launch vehicle failure, we'd be, well, annoyed, because we never got to test what we were trying to test. If it was something on our spacecraft, then we failed doing what we were trying to do. And in space exploration, that's noble. Space exploration is risky. It's hard. And actually, let me say here that I feel like we need to take on more risk than we have been in space exploration. The public doesn't like risk, and they hate failure. But failures happen. They shouldn't happen for stupid reasons. But if they happen when you were trying something risky, you learn. That teaches you something. At least it should. And you try harder next time.

But it may not have failed!! Don't forget that. We haven't given up hope yet.

In a few hours, there will be major efforts made to communicate with the spacecraft when it is supposed to pass over Panska Ves.

Jun 21, 2005 | 16:00 PDT | 23:00 UTC
Launch plus 3 hours 14 min

Planetary Society official statement

The Cosmos 1 spacecraft was launched today but we cannot, at this time, confirm a successful orbit injection. Some launch vehicle and spacecraft telemetry data gave ambiguous information during the launch. Since the orbit insertion burn, no signal has been received from the spacecraft. There are continuing efforts to receive a signal from the spacecraft.

Jun 21, 2005 | 16:15 PDT | 23:15 UTC
Launch plus 3 hours 29min

There's not going to be any new information for a while.

It is now past 3 am in Moscow, and people are exhausted. Lou has hung up the phone with us. Over there, they switched from a nominal mode of operation to one in which they will search for the spacecraft every chance they get, the next one being at about 02:39:54 UT (19:39:54 here). During that search, they'll also send a command to the spacecraft to talk. But since no station has detected the spacecraft since Petropavlovsk, and Strategic Command has not detected it either, we don't know where the spacecraft is. Again, given the lack of detection by Strategic Command the two most likely scenarios at this point are failure to enter orbit at all, or entry into an unexpected orbit. If we don't know where the spacecraft is, we don't know where the radio antennas should be pointed and when they should be listening, which could make it a long search. Hours, days, maybe even a week. We don't know.

In any event, there is not likely to be any new information for a couple of hours. For those of you who have been following my entries, I thank you, and thank you also for the messages of support and hope that have been coming in. I wish I had had more exciting news to share with you. I will certainly tell you more news once I hear anything. I still hope that we may hear something good. Whatever I hear, I'll tell you. But I will probably be silent for a couple of hours.

[slipstream]

Занятно, почему вдруг и сайт РОСКОСМОСа ( http://www.rosaviakosmos.ru/ ) тоже лежит?

ps: лег только сайт по старому адресу, с которого видимо раньше перенаправление работало, новый ( http://www.roscosmos.ru/ ) работает нормально.

pps: Офтопик, какой занятный момент обнаружился -- на чем, оказывается, до сих пор некоторые официальные авиакосмические сайты стоят:

* Федеральное Космическое Агентство (Роскосмос)
www.rosaviakosmos.ru -- Microsoft-IIS on Windows 2000, 21-Jun-2005 (Microsoft-IIS/4.0 on NT4,  29-Jan-2001)
www.roscosmos.ru -- Microsoft-IIS on Windows 2000,  22-Jun-2005

* Центр управления полетами и моделирования (ЦУП-М)  
www.mcc.rsa.ru -- Microsoft-IIS/4.0  on NT4, 22-Jun-2005

* Федеральный космический центр «Байконур»
www.baikonur.ru -- Microsoft-IIS/5.0 on Windows 2000, 22-Jun-2005  

*Центральное специализированное конструкторское бюро «Прогресс»
www.samspace.ru -- Microsoft-IIS/6.0 on Windows Server 2003, 22-Jun-2005

а на Хруничеве был явно какой-то бунт в прошлом году -- некоторое время всё-таки продержался линукс:
www.khrunichev.ru --

Windows 2000  Microsoft-IIS/5.0  22-Jun-2005  
Linux  Apache  27-Mar-2004
NT4/Windows 98  Microsoft-IIS/4.0  6-Mar-2003  
NT4/Windows 98  Microsoft-IIS/4.0  15-Nov-2000  

[Кенгуру]

А когда теперь следующий парус будут запускать ?
Предыдущий в 2001-ом, этот в 2005-ом, значит следующий в 2009-ом ? Правильно ?

Как всё быстро-о-о-о. Аж жуть. И причём по теории вероятности, он тоже должен будет, того. За бугор. Бедная наша космонавтика ...

[nexus]

Так чё там, народ, парус то умер или нет? Кто-нибудь уже имеет хоть какие-нибудь сведения?

[Кенгуру]

Так чё там, народ, парус то умер или нет? Кто-нибудь уже имеет хоть какие-нибудь сведения?

По ТВ говорят, что всё. А я так надеялся. Уже второй парус ...

Может это рок ? Проведение не хочет, чтобы мы овладели силой ветра ?

[slipstream]

// The Planetary Society's Cosmos 1 Weblog (c) The Planetary Society
// пересортировано в прямом порядке

Jun 21, 2005 | 19:25 PDT | Jun 22 02:25 UTC

Thanks for the messages

Since I have a little time now, I want to show here some of the messages The Planetary Society has been getting over the last couple of days. We really appreciate all the messages that have been coming in. (You can send your own message here.)

Most were wishes of good luck, well wishes, and hope for the eventual detection of the spacecraft:

[.. дальше цитаты из писем ..]

Jun 21, 2005 | 19:40 PDT | Jun 22 02:40 UTC

There's going to be one last update tonight.

That "good ground station contact" I keep talking about is scheduled to begin at 04:24 UT (21:24 PDT). We are all waiting around here at POP for that pass to take place. Jim and Greg and Brent and Viktor have been getting their heads together, coming up with speculative theories, trying what fits, seeing what doesn't. They are going to try to say some more about what we might know after that potential ground station contact ends, at around 9:40 pm local Pasadena time, which is 04:40 UT. I'll let you know what they say then.

But I can tell you already, all is not lost. We know that the worst thing that could have happened, the rocket blowing up or something -- didn't happen. We do have spacecraft data. There's certainly still hope that we may have a live spacecraft. Stay tuned.

[nexus]

По ТВ говорят, что всё. А я так надеялся. Уже второй парус ...

Может это рок ? Проведение не хочет, чтобы мы овладели силой ветра ?

Печально... :cry:  действительно какая-то напасть. Я так надеялся что всё будет хорошо. Никак не пойму накой чёрт нужно было сувать столь перспективный проект в баллистическую ракету не первой свежести.  :roll:

[X]

Rambler News
Печально все это. Хотя и ежу должно быть понятно: дешевое надежным не бывает!

[slipstream]

// The Planetary Society's Cosmos 1 Weblog (c) The Planetary Society
// пересортировано в прямом порядке

Jun 21, 2005 | 21:36 PDT | Jun 22 04:36 UTC
Planetary Society Official Statement

We continue to search for the Cosmos 1 spacecraft. We have reviewed our telemetry recordings and have found what we believe are spacecraft signals in the data recorded at the tracking stations in Petropavlovsk, Kamchatka and Majuro, Marshall Islands. The review of data received at the tracking station in Panska Ves, Czech Republic also appears to indicate a spacecraft signal. If confirmed, these data will indicate that Cosmos 1 made it to orbit. We will continue to monitor planned telemetry sessions and will be working with U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM) to locate Cosmos 1.

Jun 21, 2005 | 21:41 PDT | Jun 22 04:41 UTC
"We have a live spacecraft..."

...we think.

We got spacecraft telemetry data from Kamchatka. We feel reasonably confident that what we saw was real signal. In going back through the Majuro data, Viktor reported this afternoon that we now think we got about 10 seconds of data from that pass. And that 10 seconds of data is consistent enough with the stuff from Kamchatka that we're pretty sure that Viktor saw something that originated from Cosmos 1. Panska Ves also reportedly saw some similar kind of data, with similar kinds of paterns.

So what this means is that we are probably in orbit, but it's not the orbit that we thought it was. So now we search. It could take days to find. We hope to hear from Strat Comm again tomorrow morning.

Where could we be? Odds are, if it was a problem with the launch vehicle, the launch vehicle more likely underperformed than underperformed. That means our orbit is more likely elliptical than circular, and also lower, and therefore faster than we expect. Without knowing where the spacecraft is, it becomes harder and harder to find as we go out from the launch date. Strategic Command has not seen the spacecraft -- we don't know why.

So -- we still don't know where it is, and we're still not in contact with it, which presents a serious problem. We're doing what we can to find it. But the fact that we think we saw it at Majuro and Panska Ves earlier today, means it's alive and in orbit, and there's a much better chance than it seemed earlier today that we could find it again.

// ps мисс Эмили сегодня слишком часто корректирует записи, но непонятная мне фраза (выделил желтым) не меняется %)
// pps rss у них увы косой :-/

[ratman]

Вот же молодцы - не сдаются, ищут... Глядишь - чем черт не шутит - и отыщется...

[Igor Suvorov]

* Федеральный космический центр «Байконур»
www.baikonur.ru -- Microsoft-IIS/5.0 on Windows 2000, 22-Jun-2005  

а на Хруничеве был явно какой-то бунт в прошлом году -- некоторое время всё-таки продержался линукс:
www.khrunichev.ru --

Windows 2000  Microsoft-IIS/5.0  22-Jun-2005  
Linux  Apache  27-Mar-2004
NT4/Windows 98  Microsoft-IIS/4.0  6-Mar-2003  
NT4/Windows 98  Microsoft-IIS/4.0  15-Nov-2000  

Ой.

Во первых baikonur.ru к ФКЦ "Байконур" никакого отношения не имеет.

А во вторых никаких бунтов не было - с началом разработки нового сайта его перенесли на ту же платформу, где работает spacenews.ru. Т.к. висевшая последние годы заглушка и полноценный сайт - несколько разные вещи.

[Andy_K64]

Вот же молодцы - не сдаются, ищут... Глядишь - чем черт не шутит - и отыщется...

Искать конечно можно, но как показывает практика, если не взяли на сопровождение на первом витке, то дальше ловить нечего
А вообще, Лавке хронически не везет с этим парусом и прочими парашютами. Не помогла даже смена руководства.