Ахтунг! Американцы будут сбивать USA-193

[Liss]

Динамика изменения параметров орбиты USA-193:

2008.01.07  58.50  284.6  311.1  90.22
2008.02.01  58.50  271.4  293.8  89.92
2008.02.11  58.51  262.5  283.6  89.73

Все высоты над эллипсоидом.

[N2H4]

Сбивать очевидно будут над Тихим океаном и "концы в воду"..

Не факт, что концы в воду. После поражения орбиты кусков спутника  могут стать самыми разными и еще долго радиоактивная пыль будет оседать в разных местах планеты  

[Liss]

Когда в прессе появятся соображения "экспертов", что дело не в гидразине...

Не могу удержаться... Реплика про гидразин от тов. N2H4 выглядит несколько издевательски :-)

[N2H4]

Когда в прессе появятся соображения "экспертов", что дело не в гидразине...

Не могу удержаться... Реплика про гидразин от тов. N2H4 выглядит несколько издевательски :-)

 :lol:

[Карлсон]

Интересно реактор прочнее боеголовки? Сможет ли перехватчик так раскрошить корпус, чтобы плутоний хорошо сгорел и рассеялся?\\

даже если на КА реактор, не факт, что там плутоний..но чтобы там не было, оно конечно не сгорит ни при попадании ракеты, ни чуть позже в верхних слоях атмосферы..просто останки реактора и топлива утонут на глубине в 5-10 тыс. метров, а о подробностях публика узнает лет через 70, когда Пентагон в плановом порядке будет рассектречивать свои архивы..

[lll]

....Сообщается также, что в двигателях спутника содержится вредное вещество гидразин. ...

Всё правильно, гидразин, предназначенный, по окончании функционирования спутника, для увода уранового реактора на высокую орбиту, - опасное для здоровья человека химическое вещество

[Карлсон]

Сбивать очевидно будут над Тихим океаном и "концы в воду"..

Не факт, что концы в воду. После поражения орбиты кусков спутника  могут стать самыми разными и еще долго радиоактивная пыль будет оседать в разных местах планеты  

сбивать очевидно будут на минимально допустимой высоте. а чем ниже высота, тем легче просчитать траектории падения обломков с тем, чтобы никто до них в принципе не смог добраться.

[Liss]

сбивать очевидно будут на минимально допустимой высоте. а чем ниже высота, тем легче просчитать траектории падения обломков с тем, чтобы никто до них в принципе не смог добраться.

То-то и оно, что и через 3-4 дня, и через 10-12 высота полета этого пепелаца будет еще достаточно велика. Как при этом они думают гарантировать сход с орбиты 90% обломков за два витка?! Чистая фантастика, однако.
Может, объявить международный тендер на уничтожение USA-193?

[N2H4]

даже если на КА реактор, не факт, что там плутоний..но чтобы там не было, оно конечно не сгорит ни при попадании ракеты, ни чуть позже в верхних слоях атмосферы..просто останки реактора и топлива утонут на глубине в 5-10 тыс. метров, а о подробностях публика узнает лет через 70, когда Пентагон в плановом порядке будет рассектречивать свои архивы..

Ну плутоний наиболее вероятный кандидат , самый энергоёмкий он что-ли. А срелять по спутнику будут, наверное, для того, чтобы как раз дырок побольше в реакторе понаделать, если не все ядрёное топливо, то большая часть чтобы в верхних слоях прогорела и развеялась.
В советских реакторах для это специальная система выброса стежней была, именно для того чтоб сгорали при входе. После канадского инцидента как раз изобретали. Статья когда-то была про это.

[Liss]

сбивать очевидно будут на минимально допустимой высоте. а чем ниже высота, тем легче просчитать траектории падения обломков с тем, чтобы никто до них в принципе не смог добраться.

Аллен Томсон пишет со слов Картрайта (я их либо не расслышал, либо включил поздно), что перехват будет на высоте 130 морских миль, т.е. 241 км. Данным о текущей высоте пепелаца соответствует.

[Карлсон]

Перехват на высоте 240 км. с последующим сходом 90% обломков за два витка--это нереально, конечно.

[Liss]

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/TECH/space/02/14/spy.satellite/index.html?iref=mpstoryview

There will be three Navy ships involved in the operation. The USS Lake Erie, an Aegis cruiser, will fire the missile, while trajectory information comes from a second ship. The third ship will be used as a backup, U.S. Navy officials said.

[Liss]

Public Affairs
U.S. Department of Defense
Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense
Washington, D.C.

Media contact:
+1 (703) 697-5131/697-5132

IMMEDIATE RELEASE: February 14, 2008

No. 0125-08

DoD To Engage Decaying Satellite

An uncontrollable U.S. experimental satellite which was launched in December
2006 is expected to reenter Earth's atmosphere between the end of February
and early March. Because the satellite was never operational, analysis
indicate that approximately 2,500 pounds (1134 kgs) of satellite mass will
survive reentry, including 1,000 pounds (453 kgs) of propellant fuel
(hydrazine), a hazardous material.
 
Although the chances of an impact in a populated area are small, the
potential consequences would be of enough concern to consider mitigating
actions. Therefore, the President has decided to take action to mitigate the
risk to human lives by engaging the non-functioning satellite. Because our
missile defense system is not designed to engage satellites, extraordinary
measures have been taken to temporarily modify three sea-based tactical
missiles and three ships to carry out the engagement.
 
Based on modeling and analysis, our officials have high confidence that the
engagement will be successful. As for when this engagement will occur, we
will determine the optimal time, location, and geometry for a successful
engagement based on a number of factors. As the satellite's path continues
to decay, there will be a window of opportunity between late February and
early March to conduct this engagement. The decision to engage the satellite
has to be made before a precise prediction of impact location is available.
 
Contact with hydrazine is hazardous. Direct contact with skin or eyes,
ingestion or inhalations from hydrazine released from the tank upon impact
could result in immediate danger. If this operation is successful, the
hydrazine will then no longer pose a risk to humans.
 
The U.S. government has been and continues to track and monitor this
satellite. Various government agencies are planning for the reentry of the
satellite. In the event the engagement is not successful, all appropriate
elements of the U.S. Government are working together to explore options to
mitigate the danger to humans and to ensure that all parties are properly
prepared to respond. In the unlikely event satellite pieces land in a
populated area, people are strongly advised to avoid the impact area until
trained hazardous materials (HAZMAT) teams are able to properly dispose of
any remaining hydrazine.

[N2H4]

Интересно сколько гидразина вылилось на континентальную часть США из Колумбии в катастрофе 5 лет назад. И вроде никто толком не отравился.

[Liss]

Еще некоторое количество подробностей с пресс-конференции...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080215/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/dead_satellite

US to try to shoot down spy satellite
By LOLITA C. BALDOR, Associated Press Writer 1 hour, 31 minutes ago


WASHINGTON - Taking a page from Hollywood science fiction, the Pentagon said Thursday it will try to shoot down a dying, bus-size U.S. spy satellite loaded with toxic fuel on a collision course with the Earth.

The military hopes to smash the satellite as soon as next week — just before it enters Earth's atmosphere — with a single missile fired from a Navy cruiser in the northern Pacific Ocean.

The dramatic maneuver may well trigger international concerns, and U.S. officials have begun notifying other countries of the plan — stressing that it does not signal the start of a new American anti-satellite weapons program.

Military and administration officials said the satellite is carrying fuel called hydrazine that could injure or even kill people who are near it when it hits the ground. That reason alone, they said, persuaded President Bush to order the shoot-down.

"That is the only thing that breaks it out, that is worthy of taking extraordinary measures," said Gen. James Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, during a Pentagon briefing.

He predicted a fairly high chance — as much as 80 percent — of hitting the satellite, which will be about 150 miles up when the shot is fired. The window of opportunity for taking the satellite down, Cartwright said, opens in three or four days and lasts for about seven or eight days.

"We'll take one shot and assess," he said. "This is the first time we've used a tactical missile to engage a spacecraft."

Deputy National Security Adviser James Jeffrey discounted comparisons to an anti-satellite test conducted by the Chinese last year that triggered criticism from the U.S. and other countries.

"This is all about trying to reduce the danger to human beings," Jeffrey said. "Specifically, there was enough of a risk for the president to be quite concerned about human life."

There might also be unstated military aims, some outside the administration suggested.

Similar spacecraft re-enter the atmosphere regularly and break up into pieces, said Ivan Oelrich, vice president for strategic security programs at the Federation of American Scientists. He said, "One could be forgiven for asking if this is just an excuse to test an anti-satellite weapon."

A key issue when China shot down its defunct weather satellite was that it created an enormous amount of space debris.

"All of the debris from this encounter, as carefully designed as it is, will be down at most within weeks, and most of it will be down within the first couple of orbits afterward," said Jeffrey. "There's an enormous difference to spacefaring nations in ... those two things."

He and others dismissed suggestions that this was simply an attempt by the U.S. to flex its muscles, and that officials were overstating the toxic fuel threat.

Left alone, the satellite would be expected to hit Earth during the first week of March. About half of the 5,000-pound spacecraft would be expected to survive its blazing descent through the atmosphere and would scatter debris over several hundred miles.

If the missile shot is successful, officials said, much of the debris would burn up as it fell. They said they could not estimate how much would make it through the atmosphere. They said the largest piece that would survive re-entry would be the spherical fuel tank, which is about 40 inches wide — assuming it is not hit directly by the missile.

The goal, however, is to hit the fuel tank in order to minimize the amount of fuel that returns to Earth, Cartwright said.

A Navy missile known as Standard Missile 3 would be fired at the spy satellite in an attempt to intercept it just before it re-enters Earth's atmosphere. It would be "next to impossible" to hit the satellite after that because of atmospheric disturbances, he said.

Known by its military designation US 193, the satellite was launched in December 2006. It lost power and its central computer failed almost immediately afterward, leaving it uncontrollable. It carried a sophisticated and secret imaging sensor.

Software associated with the Standard Missile 3 has been modified to enhance the chances of the missile's sensors recognizing that the satellite is its target. The missile's designed mission is to shoot down ballistic missiles, not satellites. Other officials said the missile's maximum range, while a classified figure, is not great enough to hit a satellite operating in normal orbits.

"It's a one-time deal," Cartwright said when asked whether the modified Standard Missile 3 should be considered a new U.S. anti-satellite technology.

He said that if an initial shoot-down attempt fails, the military would have about two days to reassess and decide whether to take a second shot.

NASA Administrator Michael Griffin told reporters that analysis shows the hydrazine tank would survive a fall to Earth under normal circumstances, much as one did when the Space Shuttle Columbia crashed.

"The hydrazine which is in it is frozen solid, as it is now. Not all of it will melt," he said. If the tank hits the ground it will have been breached because the fuel lines will have broken off and hydrazine will vent out, he said.

Jeffrey said members of Congress were briefed on the plan earlier Thursday and that diplomatic notifications to other countries were being made by the end of the day.

"It should be understood by all, at home and abroad, that this is an exceptional circumstance and should not be perceived as the standard U.S. policy for dealing with errant satellites," said House Armed Services Chairman Ike Skelton.

___

Associated Press Writers Pauline Jelinek, Robert Burns and Ted Bridis contributed to this report.

___

[Гагарин]

Сбивать будут с полигона Кауаи (Гаваи), такой штуковиной - http://www.novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/content/numbers/243/31.shtml
Осколками зацепит юг южной америки и евразию (?).

[Tiger]

А может, там того... Не реактор, а ядрен-батон?  :roll:

[carlos]

Другая версия про тайный заговор: вся эта история со сбитием - никакой не экспромт. Так было задумано изначально. На орбиту был выведен спутник-болванка, по которому должны отстреляться ракетой. Подумайте сами: с назначением спутника явно темная история, происхождение его неясно. аналогов нет... То ли радарный, то ли оптика - не вяжется все это ну никак. А на самом деле нет там ни оптики, ни радара: радиомаячок стоит, в лучших традициях...  :shock:  :shock:  :lol:  :lol:

[Liss]

Народ проснулся и пишет...

http://www.rian.ru/technology/cosmos/20080214/99239236.html
Пентагон намерен сбить неисправный спутник, прежде чем он упадет

http://www.rian.ru/technology/20080215/99264938.html
Пентагон планирует испытание противоспутникового оружия в космосе

http://www.gazeta.ru/social/2008/02/15/2637560.shtml
Буш приговорил шпиона

[Gradient]

Сбивать будут с полигона Кауаи (Гаваи)

А если попробовать прочитать не через две сточки, а хотя бы через одну? Оно конечно дольше, но некоторые нюансы не потеряются