Microsat-R - PSLV-С44 (DL) - Шрихарикота 1 - 24.01.2019 - 21:08 ДМВ

Автор Salo, 15.01.2019 12:14:13

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tnt22

Миссия Шакти
Цитировать Jonathan McDowell‏ Подлинная учетная запись @planet4589 7 мин. назад
US tracking has just released orbit data for 15 previously undetected Indian ASAT debris objects, cataloged as 44460-44474.  Six of them have apogees above 1000 km.



6 мин. назад
This sort of late cataloging is not unusual after a debris event. It can take a while to link together radar detections and spot that there is a new object, and then longer to prove it is part of a particular debris cloud.


tnt22


tnt22

Миссия Шакти
Цитировать T.S. Kelso‏ @TSKelso 4 ч. назад

CelesTrak also has 3 more TLEs for debris from the Indian ASAT test (MICROSAT-R DEB). That brings the total, so far, to 121 pieces (including the original), of which only 65 have decayed —148 days after the event: http://bit.ly/2P6KVQ5


tnt22

Миссия Шакти
ЦитироватьJonathan McDowell‏Подлинная учетная запись @planet4589 9 мин. назад

Update on the Indian ASAT. 5 of the objects that SpaceTrack says are still in orbit appear to actually have reentered now: 44158 44191 44378 44379 44464. Another object, in the highest reported orbit,  44463, was only tracked for 3 days up to Aug 7 - maybe it was a mistake?


7 мин. назад

]Excluding those, that leaves 46 debris objects still being tracked in orbit from the ASAT test, of 121 total cataloged. Here is the decay plot (average height versus time) as of today




5 мин. назад

38 of these Indian ASAT debris objects have apogees above 400 km, thus potentially a danger to the ISS.

Старый

Чтото верхние както уверенно снижаются а нижние - нихрена не снижаются...
1. Ангара - единственная в мире новая РН которая хуже старой (с) Старый Ламер
2. Назначение Роскосмоса - не летать в космос а выкачивать из бюджета деньги
3. У Маска ракета длиннее и толще чем у Роскосмоса
4. Чем мрачнее реальность тем ярче бред (с) Старый Ламер

tnt22

Миссия Шакти
ЦитироватьJoseph Remis‏ @jremis 7 ч. назад

Predicted decay dates for #ASAT objects in orbit. 49 out of 122 remain in orbit.


tnt22

Миссия Шакти
Цитировать Jonathan McDowell‏ Подлинная учетная запись @planet4589 29 сент.

Indian ASAT debris update: 43 pieces still tracked in orbit. Plot shows height (= 0.5*(apo+peri)) versus time for each tracked object.  It takes time for 18SPCS to locate them all; a few more objects were added to the catalog as late as the end of August


tnt22

Миссия Шакти
Цитировать Dr Marco Langbroek‏ @Marco_Langbroek 27 сент.

New blog post: Half-a-year after India's ASAT test https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2019/09/six-months-after-indias-asat-test.html ...

https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2019/09/six-months-after-indias-asat-test.html
ЦитироватьFriday, 27 September 2019
Six months after India's ASAT test



Six months ago today, on 27 March 2019 at 5:42:15 UT, India conducted its first successful Anti Satellite (ASAT) Test, under the code name Mission Shakti. I wrote an in-depth OSINT analysis of that test published in The Diplomat in April 2019.

Part of that analysis was an assessment - also discussed in various previous posts on this blog - on how long debris from this ASAT test would stay on-orbit. Half-a-year after the test, it is time to make a tally of what is left and what is gone - and make a new estimate when the last piece will be gone.

A few more debris pieces have been catalogued by CSpOC since my last tally. As of 27 September 2019, orbits for 125 debris pieces from the ASAT test have been catalogued. Of these 125 objects, 87 (or 70%) had reentered or had likely reentered by 27 September, leaving 38 (or 30%) still on orbit.


click diagram to enlarge


click diagram to enlarge

Remember that the Indian DRDO had made the claim that all debris would have reentered 45 days after the test. This is clearly not correct: of the well-tracked debris for which we have orbits (presumably there is a lot more for which we have no orbits), only 29%, i.e. barely one-third, reentered within 45 days. Over 70% did not. At 120 days after the test, only half of the catalogued population of larger debris had reentered.


click diagram to enlarge


click diagram to enlarge

I used SatEvo to produce reentry estimates for the 38 objects still on orbit on 27 September 2019. By the end of the year, some 15 to 16 of these larger debris fragments should still remain on-orbit.

One year after the test, at the end of March 2020, about 90% of all tracked debris should have reentered. The last or the tracked debris fragments for which we have orbits, might not reenter untill mid 2024.

The current apogee altitudes of the objects on-orbit spread between 270 and 1945 km. They have now well-dispersed in RAAN too, no longer sharing the same orbital plane:


Some 90% of the debris fragments still on-orbit have an apogee altitude above that of the ISS, meaning that they almost all have orbits that reach well into the orbital altitudes of operational satellites.

tnt22

Миссия Шакти

Цитировать Joseph Remis‏ @jremis 29 окт.

Predicted decay dates for #ASAT objects in orbit. 28 out of 125 remain in orbit.




Jonathan McDowell‏ @planet4589 4 ч. назад

Updated plot of Indian ASAT debris. Plot shows average height of debris object [= (apo+peri)/2] vs time. 28 objects are still being actively tracked. Days since event: 218


tnt22

Миссия Шакти - годовщина...

https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2020/03/one-year-after-indias-asat-test.html
ЦитироватьFriday, 27 March 2020
One year after India's ASAT test


click diagram to enlarge

Today it is one year ago that India performed an ASAT test codenamed 'Mission Shakti'. The test consisted of the on-orbit destruction of the Microsat-R satellite (2019-006A), launched specifically to function as target for this test. The intercept occurred at 285 km altitude, but created debris pieces with apogee altitudes much higher than that. I have earlier published an extensive OSINT analysis of the test in The Diplomat of 30 April 2019.

The test generated large amounts of debris. A total of 125 larger debris pieces have been tracked and catalogued by US tracking network. Note that these only concern larger pieces: most of the generated debris probably was too small to be tracked.

Over the past year I have periodically posted an update on the status of these larger debris pieces on this blog. Whereas the Indian DRDO claimed at the time that all debris would have been gone 45 days after the test, the reality has been quite different: 45 days after the test, 29% (less than a third) of the larger debris pieces had reentered. It took 121 days for half of the pieces to reenter, and some 200 days before 75% of the tracked debris pieces had reentered.

One year after the test, some 114 of the tracked debris pieces have reentered according to CSpOC tracking data. And two more objects for which no decay message was published by CSpOC, 2019-006AR and EA, have reentered according to my own analysis with SatEvo, bringing the total tally of reentered larger tracked pieces to 116.

Nine, or some 7%, of the original 125 larger tracked debris pieces are still on orbit.

It concerns objects 2019-006V, AJ, AX, BD, DC, DD, DE, DM and DU (red orbits in the image below: the white orbit is that of the ISS, as a comparison).  They have apogee altitudes varying from 600 to 1500 km, and perigees generally near 260 to 280 km. Six of these are expected to reenter over the next half year. And the last debris pieces may not reenter before 2022-2023.


click image to enlarge

tnt22

Миссия Шакти -  минул год...

Цитировать Joseph Remis‏ @jremis 19 мин. назад

Predicted decay dates for #ASAT objects in orbit. 9 out of 125 remain in orbit.


tnt22

Миссия Шакти

Цитировать Jonathan McDowell‏ @planet4589 1 ч. назад

Five of the new objects are previously uncataloged objects from the Mar 2019 Indian antisatellite test. This raises the number of objects still in orbit from that test to 14.