Китайская тяжёлая ракета

[Димитър]

Китайцам нужен заказчик. Китай страна ориентированная на экспорт. Если заказчиков не будет, то никакого масштабного освоения Солнечной системы китайцами не будет.

   

У них прагматичная задача стать сверхдержавой диктующий всем что делать и сто лет для них не срок.

Вот это верно! И у китайцев есть план по освоению космоса.
Поэтому сверхтяжелую ракету они сделают ...  
Когда - это уже другой вопрос. Хочется скорее.

[Дмитрий В.]

Китайцам нужен заказчик. Китай страна ориентированная на экспорт. Если заказчиков не будет, то никакого масштабного освоения Солнечной системы китайцами не будет. КНР не борется за престиж своего политического строя как СССР. Они не ставят целью мировую революцию и всемирный коммунизм. У них нет комплекса мессии и они не хотят всех спасти от капитализма. И воевать они тоже ни с кем не будут они все сделают экономическими инструментами. У них прагматичная задача стать сверхдержавой диктующий всем что делать и сто лет для них не срок.
Поэтому сверхтяжелую ракету они будут делать только если на нее будет спрос в мире, а не внутри Китая

Вы, уверены, что страна, ориентированная на экспорт, способна стать сверрхдержавой? Пока примеров этому не было. И СССР и США были ориентированы, в первую очередь, "вовнутрь".

[Shestoper]

Китайцам нужен заказчик. Китай страна ориентированная на экспорт. Если заказчиков не будет, то никакого масштабного освоения Солнечной системы китайцами не будет. КНР не борется за престиж своего политического строя как СССР.

Не стоит экстраполировать на будущее времена нищего и слабого Китая.

[mescalito]

Способна или нет не мне решать. Факт то что Китай не идет ни по пути США ни по пути СССР.
Всё что им нужно для роста у них есть внутри страны.

И где вы увидели экстраполяцию будущего и слабого Китая?

Я там был и видел всё своими глазами. У них по лучше нашего.

Мой прогноз - Китай будет продавать остальному миру большинство того что мир потребляет. А сам будет брать с мира деньги и делать для себя то что ему захочется. Захотят полетят на Марс или создадут первое промышленное производство в космосе.
Они полностью самодостаточная страна уже сейчас. От запада Китаю ничего не нужно, ну разве что немножко технологий)))

[SpaceR]

Китайцам нужен заказчик. Китай страна ориентированная на экспорт. Если заказчиков не будет, то никакого масштабного освоения Солнечной системы китайцами не будет. КНР не борется за престиж своего политического строя как СССР.

Не стоит экстраполировать на будущее времена нищего и слабого Китая.

Согласен. Тем не менее времена "ориентирования на экспорт" ещё не прошли, и семейство CZ-5 строится именно с этим прицелом.

У них прагматичная задача стать сверхдержавой ...
 и сто лет для них не срок.

Вот это верно! И у китайцев есть план по освоению космоса.
Поэтому сверхтяжелую ракету они сделают ...  
Когда - это уже другой вопрос. Хочется скорее.

Тоже согласен. Но есть нюанс.
Если ориентироваться на "скорее", то это будет, вероятнее, моноблок. Тем более, что завод для CZ-5 строится у побережья и особых проблем с транспортировкой не должно быть.

Если же будет больше ориентировка на "сто лет - не срок", то моноблок будет иметь более скромные размеры (до супертяжа наверное не дотянет, но может послужить частью полиблочного супертяжа) и делаться он будет только после исчерпания потенциала модернизации семейства CZ-5 - а там при тех же диаметрах блоков можно увеличивать грузоподъемность тонн до 40 (с удлинением баков и увеличением числа движков), а с форсированием движков - и за 50 т (до 25 т на TLI). Это уже вполне позволяет обеспечить высадку и возврат до 3 человек по двухпусковой схеме.
А для облета Луны на Шеньчжоу достаточно и штатной CZ-5 с РБ - было бы желание.

[Dave Bowman]

. От запада Китаю ничего не нужно, ну разве что немножко технологий)))

Пусть не совсем дослоано, из "Майн кампф" - "Развитие восточных стран станет возможно только благодаря заимствованию достижений запада" :roll:

[Dave Bowman]

Схема ракеты, скорее всего, будет как у CZ-5 – 4 боковушки на керосине и центр на водороде.

С чего бы это вдруг? Не вижу к тому предпосылок.

Про CZ-5 - строят завод, который будет производить по 30 ракет CZ-5 в год.

[/quote]

Что-то не вериться. Что ими запускать? Это же какой завод нужен?

[Bell]

. От запада Китаю ничего не нужно, ну разве что немножко технологий)))

Пусть не совсем дослоано, из "Майн кампф" - "Развитие восточных стран станет возможно только благодаря заимствованию достижений запада" :roll:

Ну да, нацистские расовые теории - сильный аргумент!

Кстати, как знаток его творчества не подскажите - что он вещал про порох, бумагу, уголь в качестве топлива, ракеты и т.п.?

[Dave Bowman]

. От запада Китаю ничего не нужно, ну разве что немножко технологий)))

Пусть не совсем дослоано, из "Майн кампф" - "Развитие восточных стран станет возможно только благодаря заимствованию достижений запада" :roll:

Ну да, нацистские расовые теории - сильный аргумент!

Кстати, как знаток его творчества не подскажите - что он вещал про порох, бумагу, уголь в качестве топлива, ракеты и т.п.?

Белл, идите в лес, за мухоморами.

[Bell]

Заметьте, Семенюк, я вас еще не посылал. Хотя за использование идей "майн кампфа" в качестве аргумента можно пойти ооочень далеко.

[Dave Bowman]

Заметьте, Семенюк, я вас еще не посылал. Хотя за использование идей "майн кампфа" в качестве аргумента можно пойти ооочень далеко.

А "Там написано Семенюк идите в жопу" не в счет? Никаих идей "Майн камфа" я, кстати, и не собирался проповедовать. И вообще можно не комментировать мои посты

[Гуманоид]

Ребята, здесь вообщето речь о китайских ракетах.
Потрите из топика свои ж.. плиз  

[wolf]

http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/world/china/cz-x.htm

China's Long March-X-(8?) Manned Lunar Booster

© C. P. Vick 2009 All Rights Reserved

6-21-10-- 7-28-10

Chinese booster development is run in a somewhat similar manner to Soviet era r esearch and development periods for a space booster and strategic ballistic missile development projects. The "design study development" known as the "Draft Project" second phase of the Chinese Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology review of the potential heavy lift booster after the Long March-5E medium heavy lift booster has been started from the middle of the present PRC Five Year Plan 1-2006 through 1-2011. When it was announced in March 2010 there was nothing officially scheduled for its development since only phase one of "concepts development" i.e. "Technical Proposal" had taken place up to that point. The studies are the standard second phase of launch vehicle development consideration in China's State Planning. There are a total of five phases that must be successfully accomplished before this booster would become operational part of the launch vehicle inventory. China in the mean time expects to replace most of its launch vehicle inventory with derivations in the Long March-5 series.

Multiple Five Year Plans from Concept to Flight Operations/Production:

Each stage in development matures in the middle years of the individual FYP. It generally takes two to three five years plans to be completed by the normal Soviet cycle.

Soviet Project Development Scheme for State Planning

"Concept development"

"Design studies development" with trade off options analysis.
"Design development" of the final design including sub scale testing, facilities support infrastructure development
"Actual development" of the test prototypes through flight test acceptance
"Production" of the accepted vehicles
"Technical proposal" Concept development

1. " Draft Project" Design studies development

2. "Technical Project" Design development of the final design including sub scale testing, facilities development

3 " Working Documentation" OKB Design specifications for the dedicated factory further development and eventual production

4. "Test samples manufacturing and State testing" Actual development of the test prototypes through flight test acceptance followed by production of the accepted vehicles

5. " Working documentation corrections and improvements of samples" Production

 CZ-X-? Heavy Lunar Booster Preliminary Details

The CZ-X-(?) heavy lift booster is to have a general liftoff thrust on the order of 3,000 metric tons [6,615,000 lbs f] verses the Long March-5 liftoff thrust of 1,000 tonnes [2,205,000. lbs f]. In this early phase of the design studies that will end in sub-scale vehicle configuration, dynamic, structural testing the actual settled upon design and the required payload configuration, payload capacity have not been fully resolved pending the results of the preliminary trade off design studies. Mission configuration trades off studies are still under consideration based on hardware experience already in the pipe line and those planned for the Long March-5 series.

Those design studies have now revealed the proposed five engines for it first stage with a launch thrust level for each engine of 600 metric tons [1,323,000 lbsf] or 3,000 metric tons [6,615,000 lbsf] thrust very similar to the Russian approach. This design seems to be based on a large diameter core with four large diameter strap-on boosters using the same engine. This is what Mr. Phillip Clark of the British Interplanetary Society suggested in published studies some years previously.

If the engine design studies are approved for development of the engine scheme for the next five year plan the engines component R&D would be started about mid way through the next five year plan 2011-2015. That would be the first article proposed for development expected to take two five year plans to be concluded successfully. It would be an indication of the PRC's government intentions to pursue a post LM-5E heavy lift launch vehicle program for future application to State approved missions.

Based on its thrust level at liftoff as presently presented suggest that this is an Earth Orbital Rendezvous booster design approach payload capacity possibly in the 30-35 metric tonnes range for such a mission. Without higher thrust a more direct 45-50 metric tonnes Saturn-V class approach is not possible with this lower thrust level. That is it is a similar to the launch earth orbit assembly design approach as Russia's, Federal Space Agency & industry are pursuing at the present time with a similar intent. Many of these issues may not be resolved until the middle of the next five year plan 1-2011 through 1-2016 where a decision will be made to delay or add it to the next five year plan for development and use of the national resources as the medium powered Long March-5e is due to come on line. It is already known that China has put off a manned lunar landing program for the 2026 through 2030 five year plan period. This fits the nominal State planning process scheduling. For further details see the following piloted lunar landing article: piloted-lunar-landing

China's Crewed Lunar Missions Planned for 2021-2025 / 2026-2030 Five Year Plans

In the mean time China plan to use the existing spacecraft variations and their boosters to do the initial un-crewed robotic lunar exploration precursor flights in the Chang'e-1 through Chang'e-4 series to accomplish "Orbiting, Landing & Returning missions" during the 2006-2010, 2011-2015 and 2016-2020 five year plans while pursuing the human crewed lunar program planning. The China Academy of Sciences has developed a twenty five year long term "Future Outlook" forecast the "space technology planning research strategy" document for the Peoples Republic of China (PRC's) government consideration which was finished in the present Five Year Plan (fyp-2006-2010). It is a road map of possibilities to study for decisions on whether to proceed with a human crewed lunar effort that would be very national S & T resource demanding. In addition to that they must be looking over their shoulders because of the 2006 lunar exploration coordination agreement with Russia already formalized. The Chinese crewed Space Station program has won out in the shorter term committed efforts and will come first. World trends influence this with the leadership that has full knowledge of the US , European and Russian crewed lunar planning in development?

China's Fiscal, Five Year Plan Process Defines the Timing Answers

Understanding China's, Five Year Plan fiscal process precisely defines what they have stated consistently all along for the second generation Salyut/Mir class space station to appear in the middle to end of the 2016-2020 Five Year Plan, while the Lunar effort is planned for the 2021 - 2025 and 2026 - 2030 five year plans. Right now the lunar effort is in the long term 25 year "Future Outlook" forecast plan for development considerations by the government. This is outside the normal three sets of five year plans. The next five year plan known as the forecast plan is being set in 2009-2010 to start January 1, 2011 through to Dec, 31, 2015 followed by the January 1, 2016-Dec. 31, 2020 with the outlook plan. So the Long Term Future Outlook plan of 2021-2025, 2026-2030 is but a discussion consideration issue to be settled by the government towards the end of the next five year plan known as the present forecast plan.

25 Year "Future Outlook" Planning Discussions

During 2007 several conceptual space programs began to be discussed as a prelude to the next five year plan introduction of the follow on 15-25 year future outlook plan 2021-2025 & 2026-2030 that is not on the official outlook plan. They included the discussion of Chinese crewed lunar flight (twice denied) and lunar base after 2018-2020 as well as a 20-25 ton manned space station program (once denied) for launch around 2020. Both programs would be dependent on the successful completion of the (Long March) CZ-5 launch vehicle. The Chinese, China National Space Administration (CNSA) made it clear that none of the conceptual programs are officially a part of any existing State plan as of now except the Space Station effort. These two conceptual programs were clearly headed for a collision among the various advocacy factions with in the ruling Chinese space and political leadership community with mock up work already completed on the space station concept. Space Station does seem to have taken precedent over manned lunar aspirations for the military dominant hand in the decisions. It is now apparent that the new CAS Chinese Academy of Sciences study of human crewed lunar aspirations was undertaken instead because it seemed to have not quite taken hold within the S&T and Military, Political leadership priorities as yet. The fact that such discussions have been publicly revealed certainly portends for those decisions to be made in this five year plan for the addition to the next official Outlook Plan of 2021-2025 and long term strategic planning forecast for 2026-2030 as a part of the next five year plan (2011-2015). This has manifested itself in the form of the design studies for the human crewed heavy lift lunar booster discussions.

There are subtle Chinese indications of planned lunar circumnavigation missions as a part of the build up to the crewed lunar landing program. See the following article issues: piloted-lunar

China 's Manned Lunar Effort in the Outlook Plans for 15 Years Hence

Previously it was noted that eventually down the road two five year plans beyond the present five year plan we could expect them to have started developing a CZ-5 based earth orbital rendezvous (EOR) four to six payload assembly or a Saturn-V class near direct or EOR based launch vehicle in the 3,000 – 4,000 ton's thrust category for human lunar landing and large earth orbit payloads. Once the CZ-5 booster becomes operational after 2014, the single launch crewed circumnavigation mission becomes possible and the lunar orbital mission becomes possible through EOR. This is because the Shenzhou spacecraft has built into its design the capacity for earth orbit and lunar orbital missions. It could with proper equipment also support a human lunar landing mission through EOR similar the present Russian mission concept utilizing a heavy lift earth orbital rendezvous booster design approach. Ultimately it is the political leadership that must support and justify these programs domestically in spite of how much the industry and scientist believe it to be necessary. It is after all their rice bowel. The final answer to the Science & Technology (S & T) leadership questions must be a political answer. This however, does not preclude un-crewed lunar exploration in support of future follow on human exploration of the Moon and un-crewed exploration of the planets. Certainly the introduction of the CZ-5 booster will be the advent to much more advanced un-crewed lunar exploration probably followed with a limited human lunar circumnavigation and lunar orbit program in the 2014-2015/2016-2020 now slipped to the 2021-2025/2026-2030 time frames. Any manned lunar landing program development would not be expected to manifest itself until the 2016-2020 and 2021-2025 five year plans with the actual manned lunar program following after that during the middle of the 15 th. or 16 th. five year plans. Although the manned lunar landing program prospects are apparently now in the 25 year " future outlook plans" for future serious consideration this is a far cry from being an actual committed State program which it is not by China .

Conclusion

Basically we now have the PRC China manned spaceflight planning laid out for the next three five year plans including this five year plan (2006-2010), 2011-2015, 2016-2020 with strong hints on the 2021- 2025 FYP which reflects how China intends to both equal or pull ahead of any of the then to exist world powers on the world stage in manned spaceflight as a part of its doctrinal belief that it can replace one of those world powers on the world stage towards the end of that period. Whether like Russia in its present economy that will not last the question is can China truly economically control and sustain this attempt remains uncertain but it is more probable than others as things stand today. The CZ-5 based EOR assembly payloads for a crewed lunar landing mission seems more probable at this point but it must continue to be watched through the coming next few FYPs. It could also carry out the human lunar landing mission through the introduction of a new booster beyond the CZ-5 booster's capacity but this at this time remains uncommitted. They have only in the last few years hinted at their 20-25 year forecast planning consideration requirements after the next five year plan. Such a 65- 100 metric ton plus capacity Saturn class launch vehicle "Technical Project" defining the immediate hardware technology development required in support of the future booster development planning. This is why this development project wise appears to be one five year plan ahead of its expected development schedule based on the Long March-5 experience.

This assumes that the leadership still supports such a policy with its even greater associated high resources demanding requirements on the command economy in the future. This is beyond the resource straining command economy commitment to the large support development production base infrastructure of the CZ-5E booster presently in progress. It alone is a full FYP behind schedule. Noting that in the military is the State as well as the 2018-2020 start of the main space station program one is left with the question of how China is to support that space station program as well as a crewed lunar effort at the same time. Crewed lunar circumnavigation and lunar orbit programs are conceivable but a crewed lunar landing or lunar base program is quite another thing that all nations alone would find difficult to economically support including China . This brings into question whether China will have a human lunar landing capability until the middle of the fiscal 2021-2025 Five Year Plan or soon afterwards in the 2026-2030 FYP.

[Луноход]

http://www.strategycenter.net/research/pubID.174/pub_detail.asp