Сколько пусков Falcon 9 будет в 2013 году?

[SpaceR]

Так их уже есть у него, и в количестве. При необходимости можно раздуть до требуемых размеров. ))

[саша]

Salo пишет:
Свеженький список:

Маск в интеръвью(?) форбс(?) говорил о четырёх пусках точно и пятом предположительно без уточнения

[Salo]

Кого выбрасывать будем? Thaicom?

[Salo]

саша пишет:
Маск в интеръвью(?) форбс(?) говорил о четырёх пусках точно и пятом предположительно без уточнения

http://shitelonsays.com/transcript/elon-musk-lecture-at-the-royal-aeronautical-society-2012-11-16

I don't think anything that's happen will affect the order of flights that will happen next year. I think we'll probably do four flights, that's my best guess, five if we're lucky. One of those flights will be the last of the Falcon 9 version one and we expect to do at least three flights of the upgraded Falcon 9, and we might do a test flight, we'll see. We'll certainly have the rockets produced, I feel very confident with that now the rocket production rate is ramping. So we'll have the rockets on the ground, it's just a question of whether the satellites are ready or if there are any other constraints or unexpected things that we encounter, but we'll have the rockets manufactured.

[саша]

We don't like to talk about our customer's payloads - that's up to them. We respect the privacy of our customers. Direct your question to Bob Bigelow. One thing I should point out though is I think we've got about 46 or so launches on our manifest and, not all of them are actually on the website - almost all of them are, not all - 12 of those are for NASA but the remainder are commercial. "Sometimes people are under the impression that NASA is the vast majority of our business, but actually they're the biggest single customer but they're only about a quarter of our orders." 

Что есть

[Salo]

Musk пишет:

I think we'll probably do four flights, that's my best guess, five if we're lucky. One of those flights will be the last of the Falcon 9 version one and we expect to do at least three flights of the upgraded Falcon 9, and we might do a test flight, we'll see.

Test flight это явно FH.
Имеем в сухом остатке:

March 1 - Dragon CRS2, CUSat 1&2 - Falcon 9 v1.0 - Canaveral SLC-40
April - Cassiope, POPACS (x6) (TBD) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
June - SES-8 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or Ariane 5ECA)
August - Orbcomm 2G (x8 ) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
October 15 - Dragon CRS3, CUNYSAT 1, Hermes 2, LMRSat, TechCube 1, All-Star-THEIA, FIREBIRD 1, FIREBIRD 2, Ho'oponopono 2 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
2nd half - Thaicom 6 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40

[SFN]

http://novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/forum/messages/forum13/topic2123/message1022588/#message1022588

March 1: NASA Resupply Flight No. 2 to ISS (Falcon 9, Dragon — Cape Canaveral)
 April: MDA/Canadian Space Agency Cassiope satellite (Falcon 9 — Vandenberg)
 June: SES 8 satellite (Falcon 9 — Cape Canaveral)
 August: ORCOMM OG2 satellites (Falcon 9 — Cape Canaveral)
 September 30: NASA Resupply Flight No. 3 to ISS (Falcon 9, Dragon — Cape Canaveral)

[Lanista]

Хех, ну так уже более реально :3

[LRV_75]

Lanista пишет: Хех, ну так уже более реально :3

 

Valerij пишет:
Надеюсь на девять, но будет, наверно, семь-восемь. Голосовал за восемь.

LRV_75 пишет:
Проголосовал за 3, но не уверен, что сдюжат, впрочем Сергей не оставил мне выбора [IMG]

[Lanista]

Lanista пишет:
проголосовал за 4, может будет 5.

[LRV_75]

Lanista пишет:

Lanista пишет:
проголосовал за 4, может будет 5.

 

Lanista, признавайтесь, Вы Musk?     

Musk пишет: 

I think we'll probably do four flights, that's my best guess, five if we're lucky. One of those flights will be the last of the Falcon 9 version one and we expect to do at least three flights of the upgraded Falcon 9, and we might do a test flight, we'll see.

[Lanista]

[Salo]

В этом году пять точно не будет:
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/377730442629111809

Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes SpaceX's Shotwell: After 3 F9 flights Sept-Dec, moving to "nearly 1 per month cadence in 2014."
 
 12:48 PM - 11 Sep 13

[Salo]

2013
NET 2nd half of September - CASSIOPE, POPACS (x3), CUSat 1&2, DANDE, SNAPS - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E - 16:00-18:00
NET October-November - SES-8 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET November-December - Thaicom 6 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET December - Orbcomm G2 (x8 ) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or early 2014)

Orbcomm G2 видимо выпадает на 2014.

[LRV_75]

Salo пишет:

2013
NET 2nd half of September - CASSIOPE, POPACS (x3), CUSat 1&2, DANDE, SNAPS - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E - 16:00-18:00
NET October-November - SES-8 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET November-December - Thaicom 6 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET December - Orbcomm G2 (x8 ) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or early 2014)

Orbcomm G2 видимо выпадает на 2014.

Valerij пишет:

Надеюсь на девять, но будет, наверно, семь-восемь. Голосовал за восемь.

[Salo]

Подводим итоги - только три:

Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)

March 1 - Dragon SpX-2 (CRS2) - Falcon 9 v1.0 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 15:10:13

September 29 - CASSIOPE, POPACS (x3), CUSat 1&2, DANDE - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E - 16:00

December 3 - SES-8 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 22:41

[Старый]

Я не озвучивал свой прогноз но могу задним числом признаться что рассчитывал на два. Предполагал что СЕС-8 не полетит.

[LRV_75]

http://novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/forum/messages/forum13/topic13240/message995232/#message995232

выдал верный прогноз   3 пуска

Валерий говорил про 8 
   

[Salo]

http://novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/forum/messages/forum13/topic13240/message995370/#message995370

Salo пишет:
Я проголосовал за пять, проявляя излишний оптимизм. :wink: