Статья на Spaceflightnow:
http://www.spaceflightnow.com/news/n1002/16ulamedium/
ЦитироватьULA considers medium-lift launch market strategies
BY STEPHEN CLARK
SPACEFLIGHT NOW
Posted: February 16, 2010
United Launch Alliance is taking a wait-and-see approach in deciding how to pursue the medium-class launch market after it phases out the stalwart Delta 2 rocket family.
"We're waiting for the market to shape up," said Michael Gass, ULA president and CEO. "So the major driver is what's going to be the size of the market."
The company operates the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle fleet, made up of the Atlas 5 and Delta 4 rocket families, for a broad range of U.S. military, NASA and commercial payloads.
But current schedules call for ULA's smallest rocket, the Delta 2, to be retired in late 2011. The Delta 2 has long been a favorite booster for medium-class Earth observatories, planetary exploration probes and military satellites.
ULA will continue flying the larger Atlas 5 and Delta 4 vehicles, but those vehicles are tailored for larger missions, leaving the company on the sidelines in the medium launch market.
(https://img.novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/10870.jpg)
File photo of an Atlas 5 rocket launch from Cape Canaveral. Credit: Pat Corkery/ULA
The challenge is that launch market forecasts are notoriously finicky, especially in the medium sector, which is dominated by Earth observation payloads, according to industry officials.
In an interview with Spaceflight Now, Gass said United Launch Alliance is evaluating several options to stay in the intermediate market, including slashing costs on unsold Delta 2 vehicles or modifying the larger Atlas 5 and Delta 4 rockets to carry smaller payloads.
A critical factor in ULA's strategy will be the predicted size of the medium-lift market available to U.S. rockets.
"It's always about what is the market," Gass said.
Gass said ULA expects low demand for medium-class missions in the next decade.
"Right now, we see the market in the low range, at the best two to four [missions per year], or even less," Gass said.
Such numbers would be insufficient to justify fielding a rocket like the Delta 2 specifically aimed at the medium-class launch business.
NASA has been a leading customer for medium-class launch services, but the agency doesn't have any intermediate-sized payloads scheduled for launch between 2011 and 2014, according to William Wrobel, the outgoing assistant associate administrator for launch services.
Missions expected to launch in 2014, which include the SMAP and ICESat 2 Earth observation satellites, would need to be assigned rockets by around 2012.
By then, a new stable of rockets being developed by SpaceX and Orbital Sciences Corp. should be regularly launching, giving NASA other options for medium-class space transportation for satellites.
The Falcon 9 and Taurus 2 boosters are expected to begin flying in 2010 and 2011, respectively, to deliver cargo to the International Space Station under a commercial contract with NASA.
The Falcon 9, with lift capabilities between the Delta 2 and Delta 4 rockets, has already won a handful of contracts for commercial launches of communications satellites and Earth observation spacecraft. But NASA has not awarded any of its satellite missions to Falcon 9, even though the rocket is part of the NASA Launch Services contract, an open-ended agreement that puts the Falcon 9 in a pool of vehicles the agency can choose from to haul robotic platforms to space.
Commercial Soyuz rockets launching from the European spaceport in French Guiana will also be contending for commercial satellite operators in the medium-lift market.
NASA's proposed budget over the next five years includes funding for new Earth science spacecraft, and the bulk of the new missions will be in the lifting range of medium-sized rockets. NASA-operated Earth observation satellites almost exclusively launch into polar orbit from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif.
Delta and Atlas rockets regularly blast off from Vandenberg on polar orbit missions, giving ULA an advantage for launching new Earth science satellites. SpaceX is in talks with the Air Force to renovate a retired Vandenberg launch pad for Falcon 9 flights to polar orbit.
There are still five Delta 2 rockets available for purchase to meet any short-term demands, so ULA has time to wait and see how the market evolves before making any decisions on a new system.
(https://img.novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/10871.jpg)
File photo of a Delta 2 rocket on the launch pad. Credit: NASA-KSC
"If there really is a demand, we're going to try to price those Delta 2's to support that demand and see if the market shapes up and grows," Gass said.
The most powerful Delta 2 rocket version, with nine 46-inch-wide solid rocket boosters, can haul 13,440 pounds to low Earth orbit. All five remaining Delta 2 first stages are specially outfitted to fly in this Delta 2-Heavy configuration, but the rockets could be modified to fit other variants, Wrobel told Spaceflight Now last year.
"It's all a function of pricing it appropriately, and we're trying to demonstrate that we'll have the expertise to support it because the people that have supported Delta 2 are embedded in our operations, so the experience is still there," Gass said.
According to Gass, the leftover Delta 2 rockets could sustain the expected pace of medium-class launches through 2015. But maintaining ground facilities to support only a handful of flights will come with high costs.
"The challenge when you field a vehicle you're only launching once a year is to make sure you have the appropriate infrastructure, which comes with the cost, to able to support those missions with the same level of mission success and reliability that they expect from United Launch Alliance," Gass said.
"We have to convince the customer, but it's a challenge," Gass said. "It's not something that we'll make a lot of money on, but it's something that least keeps our presence in the medium market until the market shapes up and we have greater clarity on it."
After the Delta 2 is eventually retired, ULA plans to remain in the medium-lift business, but company leaders are still deciding the best strategy to pursue it.
Company officials are studying three alternatives:
Standalone vehicle: If ULA's slice of launch market for mid-range satellites is more than about five missions per year, the company could restart Delta 2 production or develop a dedicated rocket to execute the flights.
EELV with smaller upper stage: Under some scenarios, ULA could add a less powerful second stage to its Atlas 5 or Delta 4 rockets to provide lift capacity comparable to the Delta 2 rocket. During the Delta 4 booster's early development phase, officials planned a "Small" version with a solid-fueled second stage. The idea was scrapped because the Delta 2 served the same market.
Dual-payload EELV missions: If the medium-class launch outlook is thin, ULA could field a special payload adapter to launch two satellites at a time to similar orbits. This would be especially practical for missions bound for geosynchronous orbit, such as communications satellites, or Earth observation spacecraft headed for sun-synchronous orbit over Earth's poles.
"If the market's going to be one or two missions a year, then dual-payload is potentially the way to go," Gass said. "If it's anywhere from two to four launches a year, probably an upper stage that's tailored to the medium market would be the right thing utilizing the EELV infrastructure. If the market grows beyond that, and it's a steady market, then a standalone medium vehicle may be warranted."
ULA is already designing a dual-payload launch system baselined for the Atlas 5 rocket.
(https://img.novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/10872.jpg)
This diagram shows potential layouts of an Atlas 5 rocket four-meter payload fairing with dual payloads. The letters represent the fairing envelopes of other vehicles that would fit inside the Dual Spacecraft System. Credit: ULA
The Dual Spacecraft System would use existing Atlas 5 upper stage adapters to create a clamshell-like enclosure for a lower payload. Another satellite would ride in the upper position, allowing for spacecraft combinations of different sizes and missions, including pairing government and commercial payloads on the same flight.
The new adapter has already passed several design reviews under internal ULA funding. The Dual Spacecraft System would be available about 18 months after a customer's order, according to a paper presented at an American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics conference in 2008.
ULA is waiting for the launch market to stabilize before committing to one of the options.
"One of the things we have in the launch vehicle business, and we've proven it, is we can develop a launch vehicle faster than the market can develop satellites," Gass said. "By the time a satellite architecture is developed...in the time to come up with the concept, getting money, getting the satellite on order and getting the satellite ready to launch, we can develop a whole new launch vehicle inside that time."
"The satellite architecture is typically in the six-year timeframe, and we fielded the [Atlas 5 and Delta 4] systems in three years from the time we were fully turned on for development until first launch," Gass said.
Скорее всего Таурус 2 будут использовать. Орбитал возил научные миссии и раньше, это вам не какой-нибудь SpaceX. А SpaceX будет протестовать, как всегда.
ЦитироватьСкорее всего Таурус 2 будут использовать. Орбитал возил научные миссии и раньше, это вам не какой-нибудь SpaceX. А SpaceX будет протестовать, как всегда.
Эээээ? А где Таурус 2? Я понимаю, если бы он уже летал... :P
Кстати, напоминаю, OSC недавно утопил научную миссию... :P
Дельту-2 нужно заменить "Протоном" и пусть они у нас его покупают
:lol: :lol: :lol:
Посмеялси! 8)
ЦитироватьСкорее всего Таурус 2 будут использовать. Орбитал возил научные миссии и раньше, это вам не какой-нибудь SpaceX. А SpaceX будет протестовать, как всегда.
Не будет. У них нет F5.
А F9 в другом классе.
Дельта-4 и заменит. Без ускорителей.
В этом случае только даблшот. Или нужно ставить вторую твердотопливную ступень.
ЦитироватьЦитироватьСкорее всего Таурус 2 будут использовать. Орбитал возил научные миссии и раньше, это вам не какой-нибудь SpaceX. А SpaceX будет протестовать, как всегда.
Не будет. У них нет F5.
А F9 в другом классе.
А что им помешает УМЕНЬШИТЬ количество двигателей на первой ступени? Или там много прочих переделок?
Не, самый оптимальный вариант - downgrade лёгких версий EELV путём установки более лёгкой и дешёвой верхней сутпени.
Метод дихотомии хорош только в математике. :roll:
Первое время заменять будут действующие Атласы и Дельты + 1й Таурус. Чуть попозже подключатся Фалконы и Таурус II.
Ещё позже, очень вероятно, что Афина III. АТК ведь нельзя оставлять без заказов после прекращения производства RSRM. (хотя, будет ли прекращение производства - вопрос... :roll: )
Какие из Фалконов?
ЦитироватьКакие из Фалконов?
Да все (включая Ф-5 и Трифалкон-1 :D ). Лишь бы энергетики хватало и цена устраивала.
Ясно ведь, что речь идет о разовых (но более-менее постоянных) гос. заказах пусков для КА
разной массы и на
различные орбиты. Какой смысл привязываться конкретно к возможностям Дельты-2 ?
Да, энергетика всего этого зверинца неоднократно пересекается, и разные конюшни будут конкурировать за получение заказа - а NASA только этого и надо. ;)
В том то и дело, что Ф5 нет. А Ф-9 только даблшотом.
ЦитироватьВ том то и дело, что Ф5 нет. А Ф-9 только даблшотом.
Гм, а Вы мой вышеприведенный пост целиком прочли? ;)
Ещё один несостоявшийся вариант замены Delta-2:
ЦитироватьЦитироватьhttp://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=16895.0
Похоже они переключились на Atlas V CCB в качестве первой ступени. Кстати, удивительно, что проэкт до сих пор не закрыт. А уж как заявленный УИ подрос за годы задержки. Начинали с 323, теперь Кайл говорит 355.
-- Pete
http://www.ulalaunch.com/docs/product_sheet/GXProductCard.pdf 261 Кб
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(http://s52.radikal.ru/i138/0905/5b/dacbbc237340.jpg)
http://www.spaceflightnow.com/news/n1109/30nls2delta2/
ЦитироватьDelta 2 rocket could win new NASA launch assignments[/size]
BY JUSTIN RAY
SPACEFLIGHT NOW
Posted: October 1, 2011
With its final scheduled flight looming just three weeks away, the workhorse Delta 2 rocket has won the right to rejoin the competition for future NASA satellite launches.
NASA announced Friday that the vehicle will take an "on-ramp" to again be included on the roster of rockets that the space agency can chose from when deciding launch assignments.
(https://img.novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/20467.jpg)
A Delta 2 rocket stands on its Vandenberg launch pad. Credit: William G. Hartenstein/Boeing
But the news is no guarantee the Delta 2 will be picked by NASA to deploy upcoming satellites. It simply means the rocket can fight for future launches of medium-class payloads against rivals such as Orbital Sciences, SpaceX and Lockheed Martin.
"We are extremely pleased NASA has added the reliable Delta 2 to the NLS-2 contract and look forward to continuing the legacy of the program," Michael Gass, United Launch Alliance's president and CEO, said in a press release. "ULA has demonstrated its ability to fully integrate Atlas 5, Delta 4 and Delta 2 product lines allowing us to continue offering medium launch capability at the best value for our customers."
When NASA announced its new contracting system a year ago, the Delta 2 was no longer included in the available lineup of rockets for the agency to use.
The so-called NASA Launch Services-2 contract enables boosters to be purchased by NASA for unmanned spacecraft missions over the next 10 years.
The Delta 2's exclusion meant it was unable to bid on prospective NASA launches, and the situation suggested the rocket's flying days could be ending because the U.S. Air Force also had left the rocket.
As the original backer of the Delta 2's creation in the 1980s, the Air Force successfully used the rocket for two decades to construct the Global Positioning System and sustain the orbiting constellation via dozens of launches to construct.
But when the military steered its next-generation GPS satellites to the new Atlas 5 and Delta 4 vehicles, the Delta 2 lost its anchor tenant. Launch pricing and the capabilities offered by the rockets combined with a diminishing mid-size satellite market dealt tough blows to the Delta 2's future.
"The medium-class market that Delta 2 has served for so many decade has really shrunk over the last few years. It's just hard to find a business case that works, that allows you to be able to launch the one or two per year that market demands right now and be able to do it for a reasonable price," Vernon Thorp, United Launch Alliance's program manager for NASA missions, said at a recent press conference.
"The reason we're able to still do it for the next few years is because since ULA was formed we've been able to integrate our launch teams, our engineering teams, our factories, everything else so we're sharing resources between the Delta 4 program and the Atlas program with Delta 2. So we're able to take advantage of that and still keep that launch service affordable."
The Delta 2 has flown 150 times since 1989, accumulating a 98.7 percent reliability record, including 95 successes in a row over the past 14 years.
(https://img.novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/20468.jpg)
File image of a Delta 2 rocket launch from Vandenberg. Credit: William G. Hartenstein/Boeing
Its next -- and possibly final -- mission is scheduled for Oct. 25 from Vandenberg Air Force, California, carrying the NPP climate and weather satellite. It will be 50th time the Delta 2 has performed a mission for NASA.
Whether there will be a 51st depends if the Delta 2 can snare a firm assignment through the NLS-2 contracting system. NASA has a handful of science satellites currently being designed that fit into the rocket's weight class that will need launched into polar orbits over the next few years from the West Coast.
ULA has parts to build as many as five Delta 2 rockets.
"The big question right now is will there be more Delta 2s? We certainly hope from ULA's perspective that there will be. We have enough inventory left to build five more, we have all the skills that we need in-house to be able to perform those missions for the reasons I just explained -- we have an integrated team now between Atlas and Delta. We are in discussions with several commercial and government customers regarding the possibility of future sales. You know that NASA is one of those organizations we're talking to," said Thorp.
"We hope sometime in the near-future that results in a few more missions, and those would most likely be missions out of Vandenberg."
Those five remaining "white tail" Delta 2 rockets were once envisioned to fly in the Heavy configuration with 46-inch-diameter strap-on solid motors. Since the pad at Vandenberg cannot accommodate the bigger boosters, ULA will need to purchase the regular 40-inch motors from builder Alliant Techsystems for any potential future flights.
"ULA has moved into a situation where they can get the contractor -- ATK -- for the GEM-40's, the Delta 2 standard solids, such that it'd be roughly a 24-27 month lead time," NASA launch director Tim Dunn said in a recent interview.
If a Delta 2 launch is ordered by NASA, that production time for new boosters would be feasible, Dunn said.
"From the time they win a contract till the time we launch is generally 30-36 months. So they could then turn ATK on for the specific mission -- a four-solid mission, a three-solid mission or a nine-solid mission."[/size]
Господам делать нечего...
Прекрасная ракета, я бы ее не стал менять!
Осталось только пять штук, да и те в тяжёлой модификации и неукомплектованные ТТУ. ТТУ вроде бы при наличии контракта обещают сделать. А возобновление производства только при пяти пусках в год.
ЦитироватьТТУ вроде бы при наличии контракта обещают сделать. А возобновление производства только при пяти пусках в год.
Так они сначала всех запугали, что снимают с производства, а потом заказчиков хотят?
ЦитироватьГосподам делать нечего...
Прекрасная ракета, я бы ее не стал менять!
У господ из USAF другие имеются. А содержать инфраструктуру для третьей денег (и желания) не имеется.
Если Маск сумеет выплыть то у него есть шанс занять экологическую нишу освобождённую Дельтой-2.
ЦитироватьЕсли Маск сумеет выплыть то у него есть шанс занять экологическую нишу освобождённую Дельтой-2.
Здесь ему придется конкурировать с Таурусом-2, и не факт, что он выиграет. Возможно, ему придется сделать некий даунгрейд "девятки" (хм, или вернуться к идее Ф-5).
ЦитироватьЦитироватьЕсли Маск сумеет выплыть то у него есть шанс занять экологическую нишу освобождённую Дельтой-2.
Здесь ему придется конкурировать с Таурусом-2, и не факт, что он выиграет. Возможно, ему придется сделать некий даунгрейд "девятки" (хм, или вернуться к идее Ф-5).
Не факт. Поэтому я и говорю "есть шанс".
Опыт самого Орбитала показывает что экологическая ниша всех этих космических "стартапов" и состоит в подбирании объедков от пиршества с которого ушли более крупные игроки. Орбитал довольно удачно занял нишу геостационарных спутников освобождённую Боингом после ухода 376-й платформы. Также он окучивает нишу лёгких РН.
У Маска есть шанс окучить нишу освобождённую Дельтой-2.
Тяжеловат F9.
ЦитироватьЦитироватьЦитироватьЕсли Маск сумеет выплыть то у него есть шанс занять экологическую нишу освобождённую Дельтой-2.
Здесь ему придется конкурировать с Таурусом-2, и не факт, что он выиграет. Возможно, ему придется сделать некий даунгрейд "девятки" (хм, или вернуться к идее Ф-5).
Не факт. Поэтому я и говорю "есть шанс".
Опыт самого Орбитала показывает что экологическая ниша всех этих космических "стартапов" и состоит в подбирании объедков от пиршества с которого ушли более крупные игроки. Орбитал довольно удачно занял нишу геостационарных спутников освобождённую Боингом после ухода 376-й платформы. Также он окучивает нишу лёгких РН.
У Маска есть шанс окучить нишу освобождённую Дельтой-2.
А что - Союз СТБ с Куру играет в другой нише?
ЦитироватьТяжеловат F9.
А для ГПО и отлётных траекторий?
ЦитироватьА что - Союз СТБ с Куру играет в другой нише?
Дык конкуренция. Наличие Арианы-5 ведь не отменяет американских ракет.
У Союза ПН в полтора раза больше, чем у самой тяжёлой Дельты-2. Лёгкие модификации примерно соответствуют Союзу-2-1в.
Вот что надо из Куру на замен Дельты-2 :D
(https://img.novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/64619.jpg) (http://www.radikal.ru)
У них для этого планируется VEGA и LYRA.
Свои национальные ПН сделаные на бюджетные деньги американцы будут запускать национальным носителем. Так что замена нужна американская.
Запродать Локхиду КВД1 в качестве дешёвой замены RL10 на второй ступени 401 Атласа и будет всем счастье.
ЦитироватьЗапродать Локхиду КВД1 в качестве дешёвой замены RL10 на второй ступени 401 Атласа и будет всем счастье.
Боюсь что в американском исполнении он окажется дороже RL10...
ЦитироватьЦитироватьЗапродать Локхиду КВД1 в качестве дешёвой замены RL10 на второй ступени 401 Атласа и будет всем счастье.
Боюсь что в американском исполнении он окажется дороже RL10...
Так готовый продать, как РД-180 :wink:
Да, собственно, чего гадать? Ведь уже упомянутый Таурус-2 - вполне адекватная замена.
ЦитироватьТак готовый продать, как РД-180 :wink:
У, ё... :( Может уж сразу продать пусковые услуги?
Тут какраз Маск и заведёт любимую пестню: Поддержите отечественного производителя!
ЦитироватьДа, собственно, чего гадать? Ведь уже упомянутый Таурус-2 - вполне адекватная замена.
Кроме одного существенного недостатка - она почти вся импортного производства.
ЦитироватьЦитироватьДа, собственно, чего гадать? Ведь уже упомянутый Таурус-2 - вполне адекватная замена.
Кроме одного существенного недостатка - она почти вся импортного производства.
Ну, тогда пусть "Афину-2" делают.
ЦитироватьНу, тогда пусть "Афину-2" делают.
Уже сделали Флакон. И теперь Маск активно разрабатывает золотую жилу "Поддержите бюджетным баксом отечественного производителя!"
Сводная таблица всех конкурентов со всеми плюсами и минусами (с точки зрения SMD NASA):
(http://savepic.su/151314.jpg)
P.S. Надо также отметить что на сертификацию по стандартам NASA необходимо 2-3 года. (собственно поэтому и решили включить дельту-2 в NLS-2).
http://www.itar-tass.com/c19/242742.html
Цитировать23:56 07/10/2011
Серией важных новостей в сфере космонавтики ознаменовался Международный конгресс астронавтики в ЮАР[/size]
Руководитель НАСА Чарльз Болден заявил о переходе к аутсорсингу в запусках ракет для вывода спутников на орбиту - отныне почти все такие стандартные миссии будут доверены двум частным компаниям, "Спейс-Экс" и Орбитал сайенсиз". [/size]
ЦитироватьРуководитель НАСА Чарльз Болден заявил о переходе к аутсорсингу в запусках ракет для вывода спутников на орбиту - отныне почти все такие стандартные миссии будут доверены двум частным компаниям, "Спейс-Экс" и Орбитал сайенсиз". [/size]
Ага. А Боинг с Дельтой и Локхид с Атлас-5 будут тихо курить в сторонке. Что-то там в переводе накосячили...
Наверняка имелась в виду доставка грузов на МКС, но для ИТАР-ТАСС что спутник NASA, что грузовик к МКС... видимо по барабану.
http://www.spacenews.com/civil/101124-science-missions-delays-delta.html
ЦитироватьNASA Science Missions Face Delays as Delta 2 Sunsets[/size]
By Debra Werner
SAN FRANCISCO — NASA science missions face potential delays in the years ahead as the space agency makes the transition from its workhorse Delta 2 medium-class launch vehicle to new rockets, according to a recent report by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO).
Since 1998, NASA has relied on Delta 2 rockets built by Denver-based United Launch Alliance to carry almost 60 percent of its scientific satellites into orbit, according to the report, "NASA, Medium Launch Transition Strategy Leverages Ongoing Investments but is Not Without Risk."
"Delta 2, however, is no longer in production, and no other vehicle in the relative cost and performance range is currently certified for NASA use," according to the report released Nov. 22. "Thus, NASA faces a potential gap in the availability of medium class launch vehicles that could cause design challenges, delays, or funding issues."
To fill that gap, NASA is counting on the Falcon 9 rocket built by Space Exploration Technology Corp. (SpaceX) of Hawthorne, Calif., and Orbital Science Corp.'s Taurus 2 rocket, two launch vehicles with lift capabilities similar to the Delta 2. Since 2006, NASA has helped fund development of the Falcon 9 and Taurus 2 rockets as part of the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services program. In late 2008, the space agency announced plans to pay a total of $3.5 billion to Orbital Sciences and SpaceX for 20 cargo flights to and from the international space station as part of the Commercial Resupply Services program.
Still, it will take years before either rocket is ready to take NASA science missions into orbit. It takes approximately three years for a new launch vehicle to be certified by NASA's Launch Services Program and that process generally does not begin until the vehicle has been selected by the space agency for a particular mission, according to the GAO report. What's more, a vehicle cannot be selected for a mission until it has completed at least one successful flight.
In June, the Falcon 9 accomplished that goal. The Taurus 2 rocket is scheduled for its first flight between July and September of 2011, according to Barron Beneski, spokesman for Dulles-Va.-based Orbital Sciences.
Even if NASA moves promptly to award a contract to SpaceX to buy a Falcon 9 rocket for a science mission, the rocket is not likely to be certified for launch until the middle of 2013, according to the GAO report. Further certification will be required before the rocket is cleared to launch high-value payloads. That certification, which requires the completion of multiple successful launches, is unlikely to be completed until late 2013 or early 2014, the report added.
"NASA's plan has inherent risks that need to be mitigated," according to the GAO report. "NASA has not developed detailed estimates of the time and money required to resolve technical issues likely to arise during the launch vehicle certification process. As these costs are currently unknown, according to Science Mission Directorate officials, NASA has not yet budgeted for them."
NASA's plan to phase out its reliance on Delta 2 stems from studies conducted since 2006 to examine alternative launch vehicles. Those studies determined that once the U.S. Air Force concluded its use of the Delta 2 in 2009, it would be too expensive for NASA alone to maintain the Delta 2 launch vehicle infrastructure. Instead, the space agency should encourage the development of new medium-class rockets and rely on larger launch vehicles, including the United Launch Alliance Atlas 5 and Delta 4, as an interim solution until the new rockets are certified, according to the GAO report.
NASA is scheduled to launch only three more science spacecraft on Delta 2s: the Aquarius sea-surface salinity mission in June 2011, the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory mission in September 2011, and the National Polar-orbiting Operational Satellite System Preparatory Project in October 2011.
In NASA's response to the GAO report, Edward Weiler, NASA's associate administrator for science, said the space agency is aware of the risks associated with concluding the Delta 2 launch vehicle line and relying on new rockets. "NASA has been actively engaged in managing risk associated with launch vehicle availability and cost, including those risks related to the close out and/or start up of launch vehicle lines," he said in a Nov. 9 letter to GAO.
Weiler pointed out that while NASA already has awarded a launch services contract to SpaceX for the Falcon 9, it has not yet done so for the Taurus 2. The Taurus 2 will be included in a future NASA Launch Services contract, Weiler wrote. "While NASA intends to follow a similar process to certify both vehicles at the appropriate time, currently the Agency's activities in support of launch services for science missions are focused on the Falcon 9," he added.
In concluding its report, GAO recommended that NASA perform detailed analyses to determine costs related to certifying new medium-class launch vehicles as well as ensuring that those costs are included in future budgets. Cost estimates should include an examination of the expenses associated with delaying science missions or sending them into orbit on larger spacecraft if necessary, according to the GAO report. NASA concurred with those recommendations, Weiler wrote.
http://space.flatoday.net/2010/11/gao-wait-for-new-rockets-could-delay.html#links
ЦитироватьMonday, November 22, 2010
GAO: Wait for new rockets could delay NASA science missions[/size]
Several NASA science missions risk increased costs and delays as Kennedy Space Center's Launch Services Program transitions to new medium class rockets, according to a government watchdog report released today.
Read a summary of the Government Accountability Office report here.
NASA is phasing out use of United Launch Alliance's Delta II rocket, which sent 60 percent of its science research satellites into space over since 1998.
The agency has three more Delta II missions on the books through next October -- one launching from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and the other two from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.
SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Orbital Science Corp.'s Taurus II, both of which are being developed to deliver cargo to the International Space Station, are expected to eventually fill the medium-lift need.
But each is expected to take at least three years and cost roughly $25 million to certify, including resolving technical issues likely to be raised by the process.
Also, neither of the two new rockets have West Coast facilities needed to launch to polar orbits, as planned by 12 of the 14 medium class science missions through 2020 that are not yet assigned launch vehicles.
GAO identified several science missions approaching their preliminary design reviews -- after which a launch vehicle change is rare -- that face uncertainty if awarded to the Falcon 9. (Taurus II is not yet eligible for awards.)
Until the rockets are ready, ULA's bigger and costlier Atlas V rocket is an alternative.
NASA agreed with the report's recommendations that the agency should budget for the cost to certify the two new rockets, to remedy technical problems and to absorb mission delays.
Image: Liftoff of the Delta II rocket carrying the Kepler spacecraft on March 6, 2009, at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. Credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett
posted by James Dean at 3:40 PM
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d11107.pdf
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Диаметр у Тауруса-2 выглядит толще протоновского. :D
На самом деле он практически как у Атласа-5 - визуально разница не заметна.
http://www.spacenews.com/launch/120323-delta2-frontrunnerlaunch-contract.html
ЦитироватьFri, 23 March, 2012
Delta 2 Seen as Front-runner for 3-Launch NASA Contract[/size]
By Dan Leone
WASHINGTON — NASA expects to order launches for three Earth science missions by the end of the summer, and United Launch Alliance (ULA) looks like the strongest contender for the job with its medium-lift Delta 2 rocket, an agency official said.
NASA sent a request for proposals to its current stable of approved launch services providers — ULA, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX), Orbital Sciences Corp. and Lockheed Martin Corp. — in early February seeking bids for three missions: Soil Moisture Active-Passive, Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 and the Joint Polar Satellite System-1. Proposals are due April 8, with the launches taking place from 2014-2017.
Steve Volz, associate director of flight programs in NASA's Earth Science Division, said only two of the approved NASA Launch Services 2 vendors, ULA and SpaceX, currently have rockets that meet the agency's criteria. But he said the limited flight heritage of SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket — two successes in two launches, with a third slated for April 30 — puts it at a disadvantage.
"Right now, the two possible proposals ... are the Delta 2 from ULA and the SpaceX Falcon 9," Volz told the NASA Advisory Council during a March 21 meeting here. "Delta 2 can bid, and they're certified; it's easy. Falcon 9, they may bid, but they haven't been certified, so there's a risk on those."
The Delta 2, which for years was the most reliable vehicle in the U.S. fleet, is out of production, but ULA has five of the vehicles remaining for sale. ULA spokeswoman Jessica Rye confirmed March 22 that the company will be bidding the Delta 2 for the NASA contract.
SpaceX spokeswoman Kirstin Grantham said March 22 that her company will bid for at least a share of the work. "We are submitting a certification plan with our proposal," she said.
While Volz was skeptical that Falcon 9 could achieve NASA certification in time to launch any of the three upcoming missions, the vehicle is "likely to be a viable contender" for Earth science missions "that launch in 2018, 2019, 2020."
Jim Norman, director of the NASA Launch Services Program, said in a March 22 email that the launch solicitation is open to rockets that "will meet (at minimum) Category 2 certification" requirements. Those requirements call for one to three successful flights and a raft of NASA reviews.
NASA previously had given the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 launch contract to Orbital, but rescinded the award after an Orbital-built Taurus XL failure destroyed NASA's Glory climate-monitoring satellite last March. An earlier Taurus XL failure destroyed the original Orbiting Carbon Observatory craft.
"The Taurus XL isn't available until it's recertified," Volz said. "We're not going to be the next ones on that launch vehicle."
NASA has looked at using the U.S. Air Force Minotaur 4 rocket, assembled by Orbital using excess missile stages, but Volz said the agency is unlikely to go that route.
"If we get only proposals that are extremely expensive or extremely high risk, we have the avenue to continue to pursue the Minotaur 4," Volz said. "The likelihood is small. ... I don't expect it to happen."
NASA announced in 2007 that it would phase out the Delta 2 by the end of the decade because the rocket would be unaffordable in the absence of Air Force support. The Air Force had been the primary customer for the Delta 2 but stopped using the vehicle in 2009.
The Delta 2 last launched in October, when it delivered the Suomi NPP climate and weather satellite to orbit[/size].
Дельта-2 все еще жива :P
Три контракта и может быть ещё два и всё.
Пока недорогие миссии начинают пересаживать на F9.
http://www.militaryparitet.com/perevodnie/data/ic_perevodnie/4286/
ЦитироватьНовая ракета-носитель Antares готовится к старту
22 марта 2013 г.
«Военный Паритет». Компания Orbital Sciences Corp. готовит к первому старту в следующем месяце свою новейшую и самую большую ракету-носитель, сказал пресс-секретарь компании Баррон Бенески (Barron Beneski).
Старт ракеты среднего класса Antares запланирован на 16-18 апреля с испытательного центра на острове Уоллопс, шт. Вирджиния. Точные дата и время будут объявлены ближе к запуску, сказал Бенески.
Двухступенчатая ракета-носитель, первоначально разрабатывавшаяся для военного назначения, будет запущена в интересах НАСА. После прекращения полетов «челноков» в 2011 году НАСА обратилась к частным компаниям, таким как Orbital и SpaceX, создать ракету-носитель для доставки грузов на Международную космическую станцию (МКС). Компания Orbital имеет контракт с агентством стоимостью 1,9 млрд долларов на, по крайней мере, восемь грузовых миссий к МКС.
Летное испытание ракеты-носителя Antares предусматривает вывод на орбиту прототипа космического корабля Cygnus. Если все пройдет хорошо, компания планирует отправить первую миссию на станцию где-то летом и начать регулярную доставку грузов до конца года. Успешные полеты в интересах НАСА могут привести к получению компанией военных контрактов.
В первой ступени ракеты используются два жидкотопливных двигателя AJ26 компании Aerojet (входит в GenCorp Inc., Калифорния). Они представляют собой модифицированные версии двигателей НК-33, изготовленных в России более четырех десятилетий назад для своей неудачной лунной программы. Aerojet купила около 40 НК-33 в середине 1990-х годов и по контракту с Orbital модифицировала их специально для ракеты-носителя Antares. Вторая ступень ракеты использует твердотопливную двигатель компании Alliant Techsystems Inc. в Арлингтоне, шт. Вирджиния.
Компания Orbital также изготавливает космические аппараты, которые также могут выводиться ракетой Antares на фоне сокращения запусков ракет-носителей Delta-II кампании United Launch Alliance LLC – совместного предприятия, принадлежащего компаниям Lockheed Martin и Boeing.
Ракета-носитель Antares может стать претендентом на такие военные программы ВВС США, как Orbital/Suborbital Program-3 (OSP-3) и Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV).
Компания Orbital также планирует в этом году еще два запуска на Уоллопсе, в т.ч. в интересах ВВС США, в результате чего с этого центра будет проведено пять запусков, сказал Бенески.
«В этом году это будет очень оживленное место», сказал он.
http://defensetech.org/2013/03/21/orbital-to-fly-new-rocket-with-old-russian-engines/
Может Delta II и пяток осталось, но и НК-33 не слишком много -- 80 шт. Притом что есть предложения от России и Китая на услуги на других носителях.
Если исходить из того что развёртывание производства оправдано в случае заказа нескольких сотен запусков, то всё становится весьма туманным. Цены на двигатели многократно возрастут.
С другой стороны, полагаю, что больше чем в "поддержке американского производителя" правительство США озабочено поддержкой конкуренции. А значит, Orbital могут поддержать заказами для создания конкурентной среды.
Кстати, песня о поддержке отечественного производителя любима вовсе не Маском, а многими здешними писателями. Не надо стряхивать своих крокодильчиков на окружающих.
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2282/1
ЦитироватьThe launch was a major success for both Orbital and NASA. For Orbital, Antares represented not only the largest rocket the company had ever built, but also a major bet on the company's future. Orbital hopes Antares can launch not just Cygnus cargo missions, but other satellites, for the US government in particular, that previously flew on the Delta II, a medium-class rocket that will be retired in the next few years. Antares will provide "right-size and right-price" launch services, as the company terms it, for such payloads, a subtle reference to the fact that such satellites now have to use the larger, and more expensive, EELV-class Atlas V and Delta IV.
http://www.orbital.com/Antares-Cygnus/files/Pre-Launch-Guest-Briefing.pdf
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http://www.orbital.com/NewsInfo/Publications/Antares%20UG.pdf
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http://spaceflightnow.com/2015/04/08/what-to-do-with-the-final-delta-2-rocket/
ЦитироватьWhat to do with the final Delta 2 rocket?
Posted on April 8, 2015 by Justin Ray (http://spaceflightnow.com/author/justin-sfn-ray/)
(https://img.novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/154665.jpg) (http://spaceflightnow.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/delta2.jpg)
Credit: Justin Ray/Spaceflight Now
CAPE CANAVERAL — With the payload matching game showing no prospects, the final Delta 2 rocket could be headed to the Smithsonian or another museum instead of space.
The United Launch Alliance vehicle has flown 153 times since 1989, accumulating 151 successes and currently rides a string of 98 consecutive flawless missions.
Only three vehicles remain in inventory, with NASA the customer for two of them to launch the JPSS 1 weather satellite in 2016 and the ICESat 2 environmental spacecraft in 2017, both from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.
That leaves one rocket up for grabs, but no one appears to have a payload in the class range of the Delta 2 from the sole remaining launch site to polar orbit interested in purchasing the ride.
"I'm afraid, no, I don't have a sale for it," said ULA CEO and President Tory Bruno.
"We are keeping it in the factory for now in case somebody appears or we need a spare part for the last two birds that are sold."
From its inaugural mission in 1989 to 2009, the Delta 2 assembled and maintained the Global Positioning System via 49 launches from Cape Canaveral.
In all, the Delta 2 flew 110 times from Cape Canaveral through 2011. The two-pad site at Complex 17 has since been deactivated, eliminating any equatorial-type payloads from being potential customers of the leftover rocket.
The sole site now is Space Launch Complex-2 West at Vandenberg, the site of 43 launches to date, the most recent being NASA's SMAP soil moisture satellite in January.
NASA has used the Delta 2 rocket some 52 times, notably to dispatch the iconic Mars rovers Spirit and Opportunity, the Stardust and Deep Impact comet missions, the MESSENGER orbiter to Mercury and the Spitzer infrared observatory.
The feelings run deep for the dependable little rocket, a fact that could help preserve the final rocket for future generations.
"My employees down there in (the factory at) Decatur, they love that rocket so much that I've had a number of them literally volunteered to come to work on their own time and build it up so we can give it to the Smithsonian or something like that," Bruno said in a phone interview Tuesday.
"We're starting to think about what we might do with it."